Почему мы думаем, что правы, даже когда это не так

This is an accessible article from The New Yorker discussing the work of political scientist Brendan Nyhan on motivated cognition and a potential solution (article links to a relevant study).

Sample quote: 'It’s the realization that persistently false beliefs stem from issues closely tied to our conception of self that prompted Nyhan and his colleagues to look at less traditional methods of rectifying misinformation... The theory, pioneered by Claude Steele, suggests that, when people feel their sense of self threatened by the outside world, they are strongly motivated to correct the misperception, be it by reasoning away the inconsistency or by modifying their behavior.'

This is a great book on the habits and traits of the most accurate forecasters. Tetlock's research supports my thesis that the motivation to pursue accuracy (scout mindset) is crucial to actually being right.

Sample quote: 'A brilliant puzzle solver may have the raw material for forecasting, but if he doesn’t also have an appetite for questioning basic, emotionally charged beliefs he will often be at a disadvantage relative to a less intelligent person who has a greater capacity for self-critical thinking. It’s not the raw crunching power you have that matters most. It’s what you do with it.'

Here I offer some suggestions for shifting yourself into scout mindset (i.e., boosting your motivation to see things accurately, even if that means acknowledging you were wrong before).

Sample quote: 'We get so attached to ideas that we think of them as part of ourselves, so that when someone attacks a belief we hold, it feels like an attack on us personally, and we automatically jump into defensive mode. To prevent that from happening, I try thinking of my belief as no longer being my belief, just a belief that I'm examining alongside other alternatives. (In fact, I find it useful to visualize this figuratively, imagining the belief under discussion as being located somewhere a few feet away from my body. Weird, but you'd be surprised how much it can help lessen your sense of identification with the idea.)'