The Mathematics of Tipping Points
Thomas Bury |
TEDxUofTSalon
• September 2017
If you are sailing and the wind picks up, at what point will your boat capsize? Abrupt and often irreversible transitions can be observed in a wide variety of systems including ecological communities, complex disease and social networks, to name a few. These so-called ’critical transitions’ are typically brought on by a gradual change in external conditions that quietly bring the system into the vicinity of a tipping point. Despite the seemingly unpredictable nature of an approaching tipping point, there are certain mathematical features that a system exhibits on this journey, which can provide clues as to the risk of an imminent critical transition.
This talk will introduce the audience to such features along with a more general discussion on the role of mathematics in understanding complex systems and their embedded tipping points. Whether it’s to prevent disasters or predict reactions, a better understanding of the science behind tipping points is essential to understanding both natural and artificial phenomena.