No one remembers when you're right, but no one forgets when you're wrong. Your local weather person knows that saying all too well. But while they take a lot of the heat (get it?), how much of it is actually justified? In this episode, Mona Chalabi looks at weather forecasting data to see how accurate these predictions really are, and gives us tips for when we should--and shouldn't--trust the forecast. Want to hear more from Mona? Check out her podcast Am I Normal? with Mona Chalabi, from the TED Audio Collective.

Mona Chalabi: How accurate is the weather forecast?

How accurate is the weather forecast?

A weather forecast's accuracy increases as the prediction date nears, with a one-day forecast off by about three degrees.

Election day polls trump advance predictions, underscoring how accurate forecasts rely on immediate, up-to-date information.

Even with advanced technology, predicting weather with 100% accuracy remains a challenge due to the vast number of atmospheric molecules.