間違っているのに正しいと感じるのはなぜなのか
7,930,271 views |
ジュリア・ゲレフ |
TEDxPSU
• February 2016
ものの見方というのは大切なものです。特に自分の考えを検証しようというときには。皆さんは何があっても自分の考えを死守しようとする兵士タイプでしょうか、それとも好奇心に動かされる斥候タイプでしょうか？ ジュリア・ゲレフは19世紀フランスの興味深い歴史的教訓を交えながら、この２つのマインドセットの裏にある動機と、それが私たちの情報を解釈する仕方にどう影響するのかを探ります。自分の固く信じていることが試されるとき何を望むのかとゲレフは問います。 自分の信念を守ることか、それとも世界を可能な限り明快に見通すことか？
ものの見方というのは大切なものです。特に自分の考えを検証しようというときには。皆さんは何があっても自分の考えを死守しようとする兵士タイプでしょうか、それとも好奇心に動かされる斥候タイプでしょうか？ ジュリア・ゲレフは19世紀フランスの興味深い歴史的教訓を交えながら、この２つのマインドセットの裏にある動機と、それが私たちの情報を解釈する仕方にどう影響するのかを探ります。自分の固く信じていることが試されるとき何を望むのかとゲレフは問います。 自分の信念を守ることか、それとも世界を可能な限り明快に見通すことか？
This talk was presented to a local audience at TEDxPSU, an independent event. TED's editors chose to feature it for you.
Read more about TEDx.Sign up for Julia Galef's mailing list and learn more about scout mindset and rationality.
About the speaker
Julia Galef investigates how and why people change their minds.
Maria Konnikova | The New Yorker | Article
This is an accessible article from The New Yorker discussing the work of political scientist Brendan Nyhan on motivated cognition and a potential solution (article links to a relevant study).
Sample quote: 'It’s the realization that persistently false beliefs stem from issues closely tied to our conception of self that prompted Nyhan and his colleagues to look at less traditional methods of rectifying misinformation... The theory, pioneered by Claude Steele, suggests that, when people feel their sense of self threatened by the outside world, they are strongly motivated to correct the misperception, be it by reasoning away the inconsistency or by modifying their behavior.'
Sample quote: 'It’s the realization that persistently false beliefs stem from issues closely tied to our conception of self that prompted Nyhan and his colleagues to look at less traditional methods of rectifying misinformation... The theory, pioneered by Claude Steele, suggests that, when people feel their sense of self threatened by the outside world, they are strongly motivated to correct the misperception, be it by reasoning away the inconsistency or by modifying their behavior.'
Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner | Crown, 2015 | Book
This is a great book on the habits and traits of the most accurate forecasters. Tetlock's research supports my thesis that the motivation to pursue accuracy (scout mindset) is crucial to actually being right.
Sample quote: 'A brilliant puzzle solver may have the raw material for forecasting, but if he doesn’t also have an appetite for questioning basic, emotionally charged beliefs he will often be at a disadvantage relative to a less intelligent person who has a greater capacity for self-critical thinking. It’s not the raw crunching power you have that matters most. It’s what you do with it.'
Sample quote: 'A brilliant puzzle solver may have the raw material for forecasting, but if he doesn’t also have an appetite for questioning basic, emotionally charged beliefs he will often be at a disadvantage relative to a less intelligent person who has a greater capacity for self-critical thinking. It’s not the raw crunching power you have that matters most. It’s what you do with it.'
Julia Galef | Watch
Here I offer some suggestions for shifting yourself into scout mindset (i.e., boosting your motivation to see things accurately, even if that means acknowledging you were wrong before).
Sample quote: 'We get so attached to ideas that we think of them as part of ourselves, so that when someone attacks a belief we hold, it feels like an attack on us personally, and we automatically jump into defensive mode. To prevent that from happening, I try thinking of my belief as no longer being my belief, just a belief that I'm examining alongside other alternatives. (In fact, I find it useful to visualize this figuratively, imagining the belief under discussion as being located somewhere a few feet away from my body. Weird, but you'd be surprised how much it can help lessen your sense of identification with the idea.)'
Sample quote: 'We get so attached to ideas that we think of them as part of ourselves, so that when someone attacks a belief we hold, it feels like an attack on us personally, and we automatically jump into defensive mode. To prevent that from happening, I try thinking of my belief as no longer being my belief, just a belief that I'm examining alongside other alternatives. (In fact, I find it useful to visualize this figuratively, imagining the belief under discussion as being located somewhere a few feet away from my body. Weird, but you'd be surprised how much it can help lessen your sense of identification with the idea.)'
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This talk was presented to a local audience at TEDxPSU, an independent event. TED's editors chose to feature it for you.
Read more about TEDx.Sign up for Julia Galef's mailing list and learn more about scout mindset and rationality.