Is war between China and the US inevitable?

In Destined for War, Graham Allison clarifies one of the central challenges of our time: the impact of a rising China on the United States and the global order. Allison argues that China and the US are following well-worn paths of predecessors toward a war neither wants and that would be catastrophic for both. The underlying reason is Thucydides's Trap: when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling one, this dangerous dynamic has repeatedly ended in war. This story is as old as history itself. About the Peloponnesian War that devastated ancient Greece, the historian Thucydides explained that "it was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable."

The founding father of modern Singapore and its prime minister from 1959 to 1990, Lee Kuan Yew was a grand master of strategy in international affairs. The book captures Lee's insights about the future of China, the US and the US-China competition.

As the leading modern student of world order, former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger has argued that "Thucydides's Trap" provides the best lens available for looking through the noise and news of the day to see the underlying dynamic driving relations between the US and China.

Reviewing the past five hundred years, the Harvard Belfer Center's Thucydides's Trap Project has identified 16 cases in which an ascending power challenged an established power. Twelve of these rivalries resulted in war.

"Applied History" is the explicit attempt to illuminate current challenges and choices by analyzing historical precedents and analogues. Intended to be a resource for professional historians, analysts and the wider public interested in Applied History, this website provides a curated selection of exemplary Applied History, a basic bibliography, a collection of Applied History syllabi taught at the university level and a catalog of quotations and insights on the topic by historical scholars and statesmen.