Ideas worth spreading

TED2009

February 2009

|1.1M views

A prediction for the future of Iran

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita uses mathematical analysis to predict (very often correctly) such messy human events as war, political power shifts, Intifada ... After a crisp explanation of how he does it, he offers three predictions on the future of Iran.

Become a TED Member

Want to hear more great ideas like this one? Sign up for TED Membership to get exclusive access to captivating conversations, engaging events, and more!

This talk was presented at an official TED conference. TED's editors chose to feature it for you.

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita uses mathematical analysis to predict (very often correctly) such messy human events as war, political power shifts, Intifada ... After a crisp explanation of how he does it, he offers three predictions on the future of Iran.

This talk was presented at an official TED conference. TED's editors chose to feature it for you.

About the speaker

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita

Political scientist

See speaker profile

A consultant to the CIA and the Department of Defense, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita has built an intricate computer model that can predict the outcomes of international conflicts with bewildering accuracy.

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita | in Intelligence Analysis, Baruch Fischhoff and Cherie Chauvin (Editors), The National Academies Press, 2011 | Article

Applications of Game Theory in Support of Intelligence Analysis

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith | International Organization, April 2009 | Article

A Political Economy of Aid

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith | Comparative Political Studies, January 2009 | Article

Political Survival and Endogenous Institutional Change

Learn more