Relevant notes and citations provided to TED by Yasheng Huang.
Note: Yasheng Huang supplied this note in August 2013.
Since my talk was given in July 2011, India's GDP growth has slowed down noticeably. Its growth averaged around seven to eight percent between 2004 and 2011, but between 2011 and 2013 it was around five to six percent. This performance has again fueled the argument that democracy is somewhat incapable of generating growth. The problem with that argument is that China has also slowed down considerably in its growth (and China has not turned democratic). One of the benefits of democracy is stability — both on the upside and on the downside. It is unlikely that India will grow at the super turbo rate that China has, but increasingly the discussion about Chinese growth is about whether it is facing the nontrivial prospect of an economic and financial meltdown. My prediction is that India will grow at a steady rate and that its probability of crashing and burning is much less than China's.