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0:11 As a kid I always loved information that I could get from data and the stories that could be told with numbers. I remember, growing up, I'd be frustrated at how my own parents would lie to me using numbers. "Talithia, if I've told you once I've told you a thousand times." No dad, you've only told me 17 times and twice it wasn't my fault. (Laughter)

0:39 I think that is one of the reasons I got a Ph.D. in statistics. I always wanted to know, what are people trying to hide with numbers? As a statistician, I want people to show me the data so I can decide for myself. Donald and I were pregnant with our third child and we were at about 41 and a half weeks, what some of you may refer to as being overdue. Statisticians, we call that being within the 95 percent confidence interval. (Laughter) And at this point in the process we had to come in every couple of days to do a stress test on the baby, and this is just routine, it tests whether or not the baby is feeling any type of undue stress. And you are rarely, if ever, seen by your actual doctor, just whoever happens to be working at the hospital that day. So we go in for a stress test and after 20 minutes the doctor comes out and he says, "Your baby is under stress, we need to induce you." Now, as a statistician, what's my response? Show me the data! So then he proceeds to tell us the baby's heart rate trace went from 18 minutes, the baby's heart rate was in the normal zone and for two minutes it was in what appeared to be my heart rate zone and I said, "Is it possible that maybe this was my heart rate? I was moving around a little bit, it's hard to lay still on your back, 41 weeks pregnant for 20 minutes. Maybe it was shifting around." He said, "Well, we don't want to take any chances." I said okay. I said, "What if I was at 36 weeks with this same data? Would your decision be to induce?" "Well, no, I would wait until you were at least 38 weeks, but you are almost 42, there is no reason to leave that baby inside, let's get you a room." I said, "Well, why don't we just do it again? We can collect more data. I can try to be really still for 20 minutes. We can average the two and see what that means. (Laughter) And he goes, "Ma'am, I just don't want you to have a miscarriage." That makes three of us. And then he says, "Your chances of having a miscarriage double when you go past your due date. Let's get you a room." Wow. So now as a statistician, what's my response? Show me the data! Dude, you're talking chances, I do chances all day long, tell me all about chances. Let's talk chances. (Laughter) Let's talk chances.

3:30 So I say, "Okay, great. Do I go from a 30-percent chance to a 60-percent chance? Where are we here with this miscarriage thing? And he goes, "Not quite, but it doubles, and we really just want what's best for the baby." Undaunted, I try a different angle. I said, "Okay, out of 1,000 full-term pregnant women, how many of them are going to miscarry just before their due date? And then he looks at me and looks at Donald, and he goes, about one in 1,000. I said, "Okay, so of those 1,000 women, how many are going to miscarry just after their due date?"

4:13 "About two." (Laughter) I said, "Okay, so you are telling me that my chances go from a 0.1-percent chance to a 0.2-percent chance."