Relevant references and citations — with detailed annotations — provided to TED by Gavin Schmidt.
This first slide is the "Clouds Over North America" animation, derived from the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5.
There are 14 orders of magnitude of scale to cover, but only about 10 to go. Assuming Moore's law of computation advances continues to hold, giving a rate of one additional order of magnitude resolved per decade, we are unlikely to be capable of explicitly resolving the whole system until after 2100.
More on the punched card.
Gavin Schmidt et al., "Ice–ocean boundary conditions for coupled models," Ocean Modelling, 2004
Here's the paper on the equations of sea ice calculations.
Here's the GISS Model E fortran code.
Total Precipitable Water, Argonne National Laboratory, January 31, 2012
This animation comes from the National Center for Atmospheric Research and the US Department of Energy.
Drew Shindell and Gavin Schmidt, "Southern Hemisphere climate response to ozone changes and greenhouse gas increases," Geophysical Research Letters, September 25, 2004
This study produced the Southern Hemisphere sea level pressure data.
James Hansen et al., "Climate simulations for 1880-2003 with GISS Model E," Climate Dynamics, June 20, 2007
Further reading on the Mount Pinatubo eruption data.
Drew Shindell et al., "Dynamic winter climate response to large tropical volcanic eruptions since 1600," Journal of Geophysical Research, March 6, 2004
The paper on modeling regional patterns.
Allegra LeGrande and Gavin Schmidt, "Modeling an Abrupt Climate Change," NASA Science Briefs, January 2006
This paper gives the sources for data on the lake outburst results.
See also: Allegra LeGrande et al., "Consistent simulations of multiple proxy responses to an abrupt climate change event," PNAS, January 24, 2006
Thomas Knutson and Robert Tuleya, "Reply," Journal of Climate, 2005
This quote is from Thomas Knutson and Robert Tuleya's "Reply."
This 21st-century animation uses data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archive.
Different scenarios are based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs):
"Some mitigation" = RCP4.5
"Aggressive mitigation" = RCP2.6
"Business as usual" = RCP8.5.
Richard Somerville, The Forgiving Air, American Meteorological Society, 2008
This Sherwood Rowland quote is in Richard Somerville's The Forgiving Air.