Oct 12 2012: Only problem is, one robot would replace 5 workers. And one worker would likely design and maintain 100 robots. Nice work if you can get it! The workers, while freed up to play or create or whatever, still need to meet survival needs (food, lodging etc.) So unless we make it so we work much less, we will become slaves to our technology. I am all for meditation, etc. Do it daily. Hard to meditate when your stomach is growling. I wholeheartedly agree with what you are saying, don't get me wrong. Its just that we would likely have to get rid of the monetary system, like they did in Star Trek, Next Gen. There, people worked to improve themselves rather than competing for resources and money. Nice dream, a long way off. Besides, many people define themselves by their work; being out of work makes them feel a bit worthless. So, unless society creates activities to engage people, we will have millions of people, hungry, sitting around, feeling worthless, resentful against technology. Not a good combination. We would need a new challenge, like populating Mars. Sign me up!
Sep 24 2012: Well, bottom line, some people are greedy. If they can replace a worker who they paid say $30K a year with a robot for $60K the robot would pay for itself quickly. Of course, who would be able to buy a car at $30K if they are jobless? That's why Henry Ford paid his workers well, so they could afford his cars.
People will always opt for the cheaper option. Why? Well, as you become un(der)employed, you start looking for cheaper sources (dollar stores, thrift marts) for items...even though you know that you should be buying products locally made. So, for 10 years or so, everything will be made in China. Then, when North America wages fall and workers can no longer even afford that, society will start breaking down..
The robots will exasperate the issue, as they wipe out all local jobs, and manufacturing will go overseas to cheaper job markets. The short sighted manufactuers will lose all their local North American customers.and apply to get government loans, which would be a huge error. Its called a downward spiral.
But hey, with an increasing world human population, lets make a billion or so robots that can replace 6 billion workers. Where's the logic in that?
The only real way out would be a complete abandoning of monetary capitalism, where we use robots to do our bidding as we sit back and enjoy our lazy lives. Bored, but not hungry!
Sep 24 2012: I tend to view the future with pessimism. I am a baby buster, gen X, had it tough all my life. So, let's see...technology is destroying the rainforests, the oceans, polluting the air, poisoning the land. Our technology has created things that are not advancing us, from the small such as fish finders to the large like atomic bombs. For every good creation, there is multiple downsides.
Now we humans are going to be replaced by robots. What will happen to assembly line workers when robots replace them? The 3 million truck drivers? Are they going to become computer programmers, and still participate in the economy, or live on welfare?
Back in the 60s and 70s, authors in books like Ecotopia predicted that by now, a worker would only have to work about 20 hours a week to produce enough income for a reasonable living. That little bit hasn't worked out, has it?
My cheery prognosis: the rich will get richer, the poor will start to starve, there will be a revolt, and when the dust settles, we will be back about 50 years, in both jobs and population.
Or even more cheery, the new AI computers will consider us redundant, and use us as the slaves.
Better yet, in 50 years, total ecological collapse, 6 billion people die, the Earth regenerates, with a much smaller human population.
Of course, instead of gladiator games during the fall of Rome, we will be glued to our eye candy IPODs and the like, being entertained as our civilization falls.
Sep 24 2012: The problem will be one of capitalism. Yes robots will replace workers. The robotic owners will become extremely wealthy for a time. But unless there is free food, clothing, shelter, etc. for the displaced workers, it will lead to a revolt. Afterall, we have to eat. Every society is about 3 meals from a revolution.
Interestingly, this was kind of predicted by Frank Herbert in the novel Dune. In the novel, humans rose up against the technology, and outright banned ALL computers, instead creating a class of workers called Mentats (a human computer.)
What gives me the willies, though, is the assumption that AI computers will be kind and benevolent to us inferior humans. Before we start seriously building them, it behooves us to ask if we should.
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A comment on Conversation: Do you believe that our future is bright, if yes, why and if not, why not?
A reply on Conversation: Do you believe that our future is bright, if yes, why and if not, why not?
People will always opt for the cheaper option. Why? Well, as you become un(der)employed, you start looking for cheaper sources (dollar stores, thrift marts) for items...even though you know that you should be buying products locally made. So, for 10 years or so, everything will be made in China. Then, when North America wages fall and workers can no longer even afford that, society will start breaking down..
The robots will exasperate the issue, as they wipe out all local jobs, and manufacturing will go overseas to cheaper job markets. The short sighted manufactuers will lose all their local North American customers.and apply to get government loans, which would be a huge error. Its called a downward spiral.
But hey, with an increasing world human population, lets make a billion or so robots that can replace 6 billion workers. Where's the logic in that?
The only real way out would be a complete abandoning of monetary capitalism, where we use robots to do our bidding as we sit back and enjoy our lazy lives. Bored, but not hungry!
A comment on Conversation: Do you believe that our future is bright, if yes, why and if not, why not?
Now we humans are going to be replaced by robots. What will happen to assembly line workers when robots replace them? The 3 million truck drivers? Are they going to become computer programmers, and still participate in the economy, or live on welfare?
Back in the 60s and 70s, authors in books like Ecotopia predicted that by now, a worker would only have to work about 20 hours a week to produce enough income for a reasonable living. That little bit hasn't worked out, has it?
My cheery prognosis: the rich will get richer, the poor will start to starve, there will be a revolt, and when the dust settles, we will be back about 50 years, in both jobs and population.
Or even more cheery, the new AI computers will consider us redundant, and use us as the slaves.
Better yet, in 50 years, total ecological collapse, 6 billion people die, the Earth regenerates, with a much smaller human population.
Of course, instead of gladiator games during the fall of Rome, we will be glued to our eye candy IPODs and the like, being entertained as our civilization falls.
Ah well, like I said, I tend to be pessimistic!
A comment on Talk: Andrew McAfee: Are droids taking our jobs?
Interestingly, this was kind of predicted by Frank Herbert in the novel Dune. In the novel, humans rose up against the technology, and outright banned ALL computers, instead creating a class of workers called Mentats (a human computer.)
What gives me the willies, though, is the assumption that AI computers will be kind and benevolent to us inferior humans. Before we start seriously building them, it behooves us to ask if we should.