Jun 4 2012: Well,,,,, it's been a while since my last stats class, but casting around in reams of data and fitting some curves isn't exactly the same as testing a theoretical model against data with clear assumptions on sampling distributions and error. Just because you see a relationship in the data doesn't mean there is anything there.
South-flying geese don't cause winter.
On the other hand, seeing something in the data might mean there is a relationship in which to look further. Maybe winter causes the geese to fly south. And I think that's what he means.
I think this talk could have benefitted from a bit more time.
Jun 4 2012: I'd like to believe he is right about all of this. But this talk set my own detector into motion,,, and that's the BS detector.
"we have been completely unsuccessful, but we are getting bigger tools so that will solve the problem". Pretty incentive-compatible belief for someone at SETI.
Secondly, once the big numbers are out there, what follows includes a series of more or less unsupported propositions about how likely future success is.
Third, the tone is more than a little egotistical and belittling of people who may be highly informed in other areas of knowledge and human experience - who, by the way, are paying his salary.
Fourth, it looks like he is playing the "this is good for children" gambit. Often the refuge of scoundrels. I hope he isn't that cynical.
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A comment on Talk: Seth Shostak: ET is (probably) out there -- get ready
A comment on Conversation: What should be our first message towards ET?
A comment on Talk: Jean-Baptiste Michel: The mathematics of history
South-flying geese don't cause winter.
On the other hand, seeing something in the data might mean there is a relationship in which to look further. Maybe winter causes the geese to fly south. And I think that's what he means.
I think this talk could have benefitted from a bit more time.
A comment on Talk: Seth Shostak: ET is (probably) out there -- get ready
"we have been completely unsuccessful, but we are getting bigger tools so that will solve the problem". Pretty incentive-compatible belief for someone at SETI.
Secondly, once the big numbers are out there, what follows includes a series of more or less unsupported propositions about how likely future success is.
Third, the tone is more than a little egotistical and belittling of people who may be highly informed in other areas of knowledge and human experience - who, by the way, are paying his salary.
Fourth, it looks like he is playing the "this is good for children" gambit. Often the refuge of scoundrels. I hope he isn't that cynical.