Arkady Grudzinsky

Beaverton, OR, United States

About Arkady

Languages

English, Russian, Ukrainian

Areas of Expertise

Quality and Reliability, Data Analysis, Database - MySQL, Perl, Semiconductor Design and Manufacturing

An idea worth spreading

It does not make sense to:
- hate intolerant people
- force other people to be free
- argue whether God created humans or humans created God
- believe that my beliefs are more reasonable than other people's beliefs
- believe that all beliefs need proof

Favorite talks

Comments & conversations

171707
Arkady Grudzinsky
Posted 9 months ago
Bruce Schneier: The security mirage
How is data about other airplanes relevant to our particular airplane? Technicians don't rely on statistics about other airplanes when they decide whether a particular airplane is safe. They inspect THAT PARTICULAR airplane for safety exactly because the data about other airplanes does not apply. Probability is useful to predict how many airplanes per million would crash (say, for insurance companies). But it is not useful to predict whether a particular airplane would crash. Probability does not characterize the airplane in any way. Probability characterizes what we believe, know, or think about the airplane, but not the airplane itself. Probability changes depending on what we know about the airplane. If we learn that a particular airplane has a fuel leak, the probability that it will crash may suddenly increase to 1, although before such knowledge, our probability estimate might have been 1/1,000,000. 0/1,000,000 probability means that something was not observed on 1,000,000 samples. This absolutely does not mean that this "something" will not be observed on the 1,000,001st sample for the reasons I explained above. If a driver has made a 1,000,000 trips without an accident absolutely does not mean that he will not have an accident on his 1,000,001st trip.
171707
Arkady Grudzinsky
Posted about 1 year ago
Nature does not care. We need to accept this.
I agree to everything in you post except this "We are unusual in that we have the capacity to voluntarily limit our exploitation and intentionally husband our resources." I think, things that will, eventually, limit our exploitation of resourses have little to do with human intentions - they are a) depletion of the resources or b) Complete or partial extinction of humans. E.g., I don't think people will switch from oil to other energy sources while oil is abundant and cheap. I'm talking about humanity as a whole, not individual people.
171707
Arkady Grudzinsky
Posted about 1 year ago
My question is what caused the Big Bang?
Causality is a mental construct. What we consider to be a cause of an event is somewhat arbitrary. I reflected on determinism, causality, and free will here http://thousayest.wordpress.com/2014/02/14/forget-free-will-does-determinism-exist/