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## How does one predict the date when an entire nation would fall?

Ray Kurzweil is an inventor and futurist. He has been known for his highly accurate predictions such as when computers would be able to beat the best human chess players (Deep Blue IBM). His current primary prediction is the time of the coming singularity, the point where man and machine merge. But what has puzzled me was how he was able to predict something like the fall of the Soviet Union? If one is to predict the time when this would happen to a certain accuracy, there must be some mathematical analysis involved. What factors would one consider in determining when the Soviet Union would fall, and how would one put that into a mathematical model that would estimate the date of this event?

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## Jedrek Stepien 10+

I don't know if you can apply maths to political predictions, but in the case of Soviet Union it didn't really take a visionary to figure out that their economy had been choking for quite some time and that preserving this mummy would soon be impossible. Still, my hat goes off to Kurzwell for being as accurate as he was.

## Peter Xu

## Jedrek Stepien 10+

Such is the power of math! :)