Cat Lever

CEO/Coffee Runner, Cat Lever, Bookings Agent and Promoter

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Will the 2013 election see Australia with a Labor (Gillard) or Liberal (Abbot) Government, and to what extent does the media influence votes

In the light of today's leadership spill (27/2/2012), arguments over Gillard vs Rudd/ Both of them vs Abbot have run into overdrive. There is a distinct difference in the discussions fueled by in-depth political knowledge, and the superficial slings that the less politically inclined choose to fight with. My question is; what percentage of Australia is dictated to by the television and newspapers, and will our next leader win based on a celebrity style popularity vote, or an honorable policy promise.

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    Feb 29 2012: Cat, Can't say who will win, but have some studies in politics. The number one thing is name recognition. In todays world that usuall equates to money. To be honest most voters do not understand the issues well enough to judge. I ask some friends what the current president of the US promised during his campaign and they could not remember. So broken promises are not really a big deal. One of the big factors is Unions. As they are almost always Liberal they influence the vote of their members. Many people are in a party because their parents were of that party. In the states Clinton went after the votes of the college kids, women, and minorities and won. The reason he targeted these groups was as he said they were easily swayed and political babies. Once hooked he and the party would own them forever. Obama went after the same group making the same promises. What works ... works. Independents seem to vote against not for. Sheeple will always vote a party line. Probally did not answer any of your questions. Hope I shed some political light, in my opinion. good luck Bob
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    Feb 28 2012: Who will win? No one knows.

    Incumbent governments have recovered from worse poll positions.

    Suggest the current polls reflect Labor breaking promises, failing in some areas, and fighting itself. A bias media wasn't required.

    Sooner or later the Liberals will need to put up their policies and financials rather than simply oppose. Then people will assess the options and see if there is anything to change their mind.

    As to the media, I suggest at least 60% of people tend to vote Labor or Coalition or Green all the time.
    For the swing voters I suggest while the media may be a factor, it is what the government does and whether voters like what they see or not that makes the difference.

    People don't need shock jocks to get angry at Labor saying no carbon tax before the election and doing a 180 afterwards. I also think Labor should be punished for that, and I'm not necessarily against the tax. I'm for holding the government to account to meet its promises and punish them if they break them. Otherwise representative democracy is a failure.

    Suggest the various media outlets usually stir up supporters who already hold a similar view. Sometimes the media reflects the public view rather than shapes it.

    Leaks are not the media's fault either.

    Perhaps it is around the margins that a relentless media onslaught in one direction might push a few over the Edge. Important in a close election. Not so when there is a big swing.

    Personality, popularity, charisma make a difference but so do integrity and capability.

    I actually think Kevin would not be so popular if he was pm again. People perhaps feel the dumping was wrong. Perhaps they want to vote him out themselves. He just wasn't up to the job. And while he was bit nerdy and likeable when on show he was a different once out of the spotlight.
  • Mar 5 2012: Chances are the Liberals will win although I doubt either party will create anything substantially beneficial to the individual voter.

    It's a shame that politicians have their own interests at heart instead that of their constituents who voted them in the first place. I would like to see a politician who does not vote on policy decisions down party lines, but instead votes on behalf of their local area members. In an ideal world I would like to see a politician put the latest political issue on their website, let their local members vote on the issue and then take that result to parliament regardless of how they personally feel.

    I think the media influences the government's focus which in turn influences voters. Take the boat people refugee issue for example. The media suggest that illegal boat people is an important issue and stopping it then becomes a voting issue, however the reality is that less than 5% of illegal immigrants arrive via boat. The rest arrive through the airports however as this is never reported the government doesn't address the issue.
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    Feb 29 2012: Thank you for your thoughts! The reason I highlighted the media point is I feel like I'm listening (especially recently) to a lot of misinformation regurgitation from my friends; which I can mostly blame on mudslinging campaigns and bias discourse (usually portrayed by leading media bodies).

    This may not be the reality, but there seems to be a wider percentage of Australians currently who are misinformed, or who blatantly "don't care". My example being the overwhelming majority of my friends and colleagues who refer to Prime Minister Gillard as a "backstabbing bitch" re the 2010 leadership spill, whom when questioned have little or no idea of how that event actually came about and why.

    I completely agree with you Bob in that many people vote for who their parents propose, and yes GM, "Personality, popularity, charisma/integrity and capability" do play a large role (if not the largest role all things considered) when campaigning for votes.

    In regards to the 2013 election; it's so difficult to predict, but assuming both parties are in a similar place policy and progress wise in a years time (which I believe to be likely), I wonder if Australians will throw their vote to the "backstabbing bitch" or the Pro-life religious nut. Is that a caricature description of those leaders? Absolutely! But that's what the media gives us, and unless we take the extra time and go the extra step to understand the policies and progress of implementation fully, that's all we've got.

    Great stuff, thanks guys for your responses!