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Is it possible for our planet to "crash" due to being a closed biological system?
After watching a wonderful video by Mike deGruy, I was very impressed by the illustrations he used regarding closed biological systems.
Please take the time to watch the TED event talk below, and chime in with your insight and/or opinion, on whether our Earth will eventually end up like the other three examples given in the video.
Some feel this is a very big problem, and offer many different solutions.
What is your take on this issue? Is it an issue? Or is the Earth able to continue producing indefinitely?
http://youtu.be/EPOIiRxToiQ
Mitch SMith 50+
Let's say you have a population growth of 7%.
That leads to population doubling every 10 years.
If the growth factor is 3.5% - it takes 20 years to double population.
Rather than looking at growth, look at the capacity of the finite system.
Let's say for arguement that a community has 1000 acres of arable land.
Let's say that it takes 1 acre to feed 1 person.
Let's say that the community starts at 2 people and has a growth factor of 7%.
Here are the numbers:
After 50 years, not much has happened, the population is now 59 - the 1000 acres is going fine.
After 70 years there are now 227 people .. hey no biggie, they have only used about 1/4 of the avialable land.
THen after 83 years, there are 549 people .. hmm 1/2 of the land is gone, but hey, plenty left huh!
THen at 88 years, there's only 1/4 land left hmm doesn't seem so bad.
Then at 90 years, there's only 118 acres left.
THen at 91 years there's only 56 acres left
At 92 years, people begin to starve.
THat's 4 years between 1/4 available to all gone.
At 3.5% - it takes 8 years for that to happen.
But see how it all happens at a rush?
This will apply to all resources - and we are well and truly into the rush with most things.
Now if you go out and discover another 1000 acres of land - what does that give you? Another 10 years.
If you double yields - that's still only another 10 years.
Once you hit the slope, you must flatline-growth or collapse
The debate must be about how to flatline growth.
Not a very popular position I know, but the numbers don't give us much alternative.
What is US growth rate right now?
..
And please - stop blaming the poor countries - many have less growth rate than USA and many other rich western countries - and those poor countries with higher growth rates have much smaller populations - they contribute a lot less to the over-all growth problem.
alex Cui
I have seen a few counter-arguments towards overpopulation control, about how population will in fact level or drop, and I consider that unlikely considering how poverty will continue and possibly worsen over the years, (with 40% of pregnancies being accidental) those in poverty (a good 1/3-1/2 of the world?) will not stop reproducing (without change, of course).
With a loose, open perspective, I believe that there is a need of both develop countries to stop consuming more than feasible, and for poorer ones to stop producing at such an alarming rate. The only thing for me to find out is why these are happening, and what their solutions are also.
Mary M. 50+
Thank you for voicing your concerns.
I think that the why these are happening has been discussed in other ted talks.....man's greed and lack of long term vision (widom).
The solution: These vary depending on who you talk with.
Everyone seems to want a beautiful clean Earth....but it's not happening. We live in these huge cities, and are happy with all the entertainment and technology and restaurants....and vacations on cruise ships and eco-tours to beautiful lush forests or sandy beaches, but in reality.....our Earth is being ruined.
Well, like I've stated in other's comments, we will have to wait and see what will happen, and who will step in.
Thank you for contributing Alex. Be Well.
[EDIT] IMHO population control is not the answer.
George Papachristos
Mary M. 50+
Hmm.....I really find this hard to believe.....well, of course, I am no expert. But it's just what I have seen as far as the Earth's ability to come back from devastating volcanic eruptions, hurricanes, fires, and the like...
My curiosity is mostly dealing with what I saw in the deGruy video....I really do not agree with his premise...that like the three examples he gave prior to speaking of the Earth, he considered us to be a closed biological system headed for destruction because the Earth can only produce so much....Although a powerful delivery....I found it to be inaccurate.
Perhaps we will have to wait and see.
George Papachristos
Homeostasis as is referred to in the video. Us however, like the algae in the video we use the nutrients and face the odds. Increases in efficiency will only delay this, if the same consumption patterns and processes are kept in place. One caveat is the so called demographic shift where the birth rate of countries decreases as the living conditions and well being of their inhabitants increases.
Now, having said that the vast majority of people, more than 4 billion have not gone through this transition, hence their rates of multiplication are high and exacerbate the problem of resource or nutrient depletion. This places us in the following conundrum, in order to control population growth by lowering population increase rates we have to raise standards of living, and this of course requires that an unbearable burden to the planet's resources if all of us are to live like Europeans do, let alone the Americans...
Finally, contrary to the video we can use something outside the petri dish, namely solar energy instead of the closed system's nutrients.
Of course as is the case often, this is more easily said than done...so all bets are off as to how this plays out...
Mary M. 50+
Joseph Bishop
Mary M. 50+
I do feel that there is alot we do not understand with regards to the diversity of life on earth, and the natural cycles.
And yes, we (humans) seem to be part of the problem at present.....so in your opinion, we as humans can be driven out of the system, and yet the Earth will survive....is this an accurate statement?
I too feel the Earth will continue indefinitely........will human life???
We'll have to wait and see.
Benjamin Goldstein 20+
Mary M. 50+
Mary
Kevin Parcell 30+
Mary M. 50+
I agree with this.....IMO also, the ecological devastation we are seeing is collateral damage of the global greed for many things. Why don't people see this?? Are those responsible for the damage not realizing their own offspring will be affected by this sort of pollution and emminent disaster?
Quote: "it doesn't have to be a disaster for all of us and for all of life on Earth. Instead we can accept it and start building the new world"
This I also agree with.....It is possible for some to survive the disaster that if inevitable, and then start to rebuild.
I feel the Earth is so beautiful and powerful in it's cycles, that no mater what man does, the Earth is able to heal itself.....of course, it might take thousands of years.....and we might not see the results personally.
Or can we??
Kevin Parcell 30+
Mary M. 50+
While it would be incredibly fantastic if we collectively changed, to avert the fall, I think the more likely scenario will be that individually, many are preparing for it, because they see it as inevitable.
That having been said, I personally do not see the Earth being destroyed......but I can see human life reaching extinction if a solution doesn't appear.
Do you think a human government (leader) will provide the solution to our dilenma? Because I don't.