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griffin tucker

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At what point in the future will fate be certain?

Take into consideration that there is no fate; No outcome can be pre-determined with 100% accuracy.

Now, consider the opposite.

Technology advancements such as reading the human mind, data storage capacity increasements, quantum computing becoming more common-place, and other technology related to the mind have already occurred.

The question is not if, but when will observing the future of a mind's decision occur, and therefore eventually control of a mind's decisions (fate) on a larger scale begin?


Noteworthy references:

http://newscenter.berkeley.edu/2011/09/22/brain-movies/
http://www.dwavesys.com/en/pressreleases.html#lm_2011

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Closing Statement from griffin tucker

i don't think this question was effectively answered - yet.

i will re-write the question to include a new discovery as mentioned by mirella jaber to include limits on predictions.

many people commented that they hope the idea won't happen due to different reasons based on fear - the fear may just be very rational - but i don't believe that will stop it from happening on a larger scale. many moral questions need to be answered.

http://www.ted.com/conversations/7311/a_psychic_computer.html

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    Nov 21 2011: yes, you are perfectly right, this is the idea: being able to know and control the future might be possible up to some degree - but never totally possible, basically because reality is an ongoing process - so, whatever the input data, it is never definite and final, and our computing machine is virtually processing obsolete data - think of the reality at its very base, at Plank scale level: the fabric of life is continuously changed by the collapsing of the wave function, where at any time different possibilities get to be manifested depending on the observation - or the observer's mind set. We are continuously creating reality, while reality itself is continuously creating us, a two-way process. We can only predict a future based on continuously changing premises.
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    Nov 20 2011: This will NEVER happen. No matter what positive "Save this world!", or negative: "Control this world!" agenda, and no matter what advanced, undreamed of quantum computation machines, reality is just an uncomputable thing - and neither people's thoughts are. Why, because entering computable data means "known data" - or, reality is an iceberg with just the tip, the "knowable" pointing out, while the rest, the "unknowable" remains out of any possibility of representation or perception - reality is not a limited set of O/1s (limited meaning, that, eventually, even the quantum computing machine will need to stop somewhere and give us the result). Further than that we'll need to get into issues such as "perpetuum movement" with machines and results going on "ad infinitum" http://wap03.informatik.fh-wiesbaden.de/weber1/turing/. Man can be indefinitely ambitious, in good and in bad intentions, but nobody can ever control the now already 7billion brains that would make the Global Mind, also given the fact that increasingly scientists are being mind boggled by the complexity of even as tiny a mind as that of a mouse (www.brainhealthhacks.com/.../how-many-neurons-does-a-human-br..) I strongly believe that much more advantageous to mankind would be the global effort to nourish and educate the global population in the spirit of fairness and equal opportunities - much more than spending all that googol amounts of energy in futile, thoughtless, fruitless projects - all already proven to be so by living experience, like building iron curtains, separating walls, crusade wars, wars on terror, bombing felon states, etc, etc. By its very nature human psychology has the amazing property of reacting to positive/negative stimuli in a sort of mirror response. why not use advanced knowledge in more wise ways??

    I rather believe that
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      Nov 21 2011: i agree that a 100% accurate representation of reality isn't possible - as i have learned from conversations here on TED since posting the original question, but i also believe it isn't needed.

      even without absolute 100% accuracy, a certain degree of accuracy would still result in being able to control the future, although with even less accuracy of control.

      although 100% accuracy isn't exactly definable yet when dealing with simulating future reality and comparing it to when it happens, accuracy will only increase until it reaches a certain (now unknown) limit. all i know of the limit is that it will be under 100% accuracy.

      this basically means that a particular computer will be able to predict the future up until a certain point - the limits of where/what and how far into the future are dependent on each other.
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    Nov 20 2011: When this question runs out of time and is closed :)
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    Nov 13 2011: consider these robot hands bouncing and catching balls: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfdHY26E2jc

    the programming algorithm predicts where the ball will end up. this is predicting the future.

    the programming algorithm also calculates when the robotic hand or finger will come into contact with the ball, and then controls where to put the ball. this is controlling the future.

    although this is predicting and controlling the future on a small scale, when taking into consideration just how powerful quantum computers are, what will stop these quantum computers from predicting and controlling the future on a larger scale?
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    Nov 10 2011: Griffin....with us or without us, the future will be....but we never know.....the only thing that I can provide you as a reflction is from ancient greek philosopy.......the grave in eternity.....for sure.
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      Nov 10 2011: if you can predict the future with 100% accuracy, the same applies to reproducing the past. reconstruction of elements that brought about a particular element - for instance, a particular human - can be reconstructed.

      it would be expensive, though.

      for this to occur, not only would dna be required, but their entire environment leading up until their death would need to be reconstructed.

      to get an idea of how expensive it would be, you'd have to go back to reproducing the big-bang.
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    Nov 9 2011: I think the answer to your question is never (this is just a thought)

    But more than that I hope that will never happen. You can talk about it using some sort of utilitarian language but I think this would be worse than something like Big Brother (Orwellian)

    There are somethings that should be left to be private and peoples thoughts are one of them. If there is anything that is personal to an individual it is their thoughts and intentions.

    It seems you are trying to create the the perfect, most moral society, which is fine, but there are other ways of doing so than trying to observe peoples minds. Besides, humans are humans, we are imperfect beings and this is something that I am ok with. I'm not saying murder, rape , genocide is a great thing (of course this should be at least decreased) but I also think that their are other factors involved in decision making (ones social system, genetics, levels of oxytocin, religion, family, etc) and it would be impossible to stop everyone from doing immoral things
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      Nov 10 2011: don't get me wrong, i'm not advocating the idea exactly; it's just my opinion that it's going to happen whether we know it or not on either a small or large scale eventually - by whom (or what) is another question altogether.

      there are indeed other factors involved in decision making - but whatever factor it is, i believe can be analysed and predicted by a computer. if it can be predicted, i believe it can be changed.

      it's interesting that you mention oxytocin - i believe you were referring to http://www.ted.com/talks/paul_zak_trust_morality_and_oxytocin.html
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        Nov 10 2011: My apologies for the assumption but at least we are on the same page now

        Now that you mention your perspective on this I honestly would not be surprised if the government would actually advocate for something like this. Even if such a thing was not innovated in the U.S. I would not be surprised if other countries developed such technology and then used individuals from less developed countries as guinea pigs.

        I did not intend to create such a pessimistic view of this but I really distrust the major powers in the world and if your already posting things about this, I'm sure this has been talked about already by those in power. It would not be hard for them to say it was for security reasons so getting the public to support them wouldn't be hard to do.

        At the time that I wrote my post no, I did not even know that talk existed until late last night and it was indeed interesting and informative but yes it would also support the claim that I was making.
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          Nov 10 2011: (un)fortunately, (depending on your perspective) the nature of competition for innovation has resulted in an "if it's possible, no matter how immoral, as long as it's going to contribute to defensive technology before another country does, we'll investigate" type of attitude.

          this is not to say that the investigation will result in the application of quantum computing technology for this purpose, as other methods could be developed to provide the same result - individually, or on a mass scale.

          on the note of pessimism - if you were to try and take an optimist's point of view on the matter, aside from the view-point that it won't happen, considering that you have the imposed power to change some of the result now, before some-one/thing else does eventually, what would you change about it?

          i have actually thought about the concept for quite some time now, i'm not sure if the idea is new, but on the matter of free-will, i would suggest spatial areas (on earth or otherwise) that are designated enclosed radio-free and non-observed zones. although once exiting such a zone, the very concept would allow free-will to be over-ridden eventually, but continual frequent entering of these hypothetical zones would result in a form of 'encryption' which would basically mean more free-will for a specified amount of time until the encryption is cracked.
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    Nov 9 2011: I hope that it'll never happen in 100 % becouse it will be the end of humankind
    The idea of controlling human mind's decisions is - in my opinion - the part of totalitarism.
    But - there are always so many scientists, politics interested in absolute control of people's mind - and maybe this horrror will become reality some day
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      Nov 9 2011: why would it be the end of humankind? wouldn't the very idea automatically preserve humankind? if the future decisions of certain people or even natural events were known, it could actually prevent disasters by changing or adapting to their predicted outcomes.

      perhaps a foolish question, but, why is it scary?