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## How can you be 100% sure about predictions ?

If you could learn from the past. From peoples previous experiences and then apply this knowledge to your present and future by predicting it, how can you be absolutely sure that the exact same scenario will happen ? Predictions made by somebody elses history could only be true for you if the exact same scenario and events happen. With math we can easily predict everything by calculating it to the very small detail, but in predictions how can we be that sure ? How is it possible to be 100% sure about this ?

• #### Christophe Cop

• +2
Sep 29 2011: you can never be 100% sure about anything... you can assume you are sure.
And within deductive logic, things that follow logically from assumptions have a 100% truth value within that system.

Though any prediction that is better than randomness already has benefits.
I am quite sure tomorrow gravity will be there, as well as the sun, and that evolution theory will not be refuted.
I also can predict with near 100% probability you will die (as will I). And that there won't be world peace tomorrow or next year. I'm quite confident that my passions, likes and dislikes will be quite the same next month...

So: live with the idea that we just can't be entirely sure... just near-sure. That's inductive reasoning... and that's the best we've got.
• #### Gisela McKay

• +1
Sep 29 2011: You can't.

Even if you could get in a time machine, go forward and come back to "make the prediction", there is still no guarantee that someone wouldn't do something to screw it up.
• #### Silvia Marinova

• 0
Sep 30 2011: I agree. Just gotta trust your instincts and take risks sometimes. :)
• #### Anthony Dell

• 0
Sep 30 2011: Yogi Berra put it best: "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future."
• #### Gerald O'brian

• 0
Sep 29 2011: You can't. Predictions are not scientific in this matter. Just because something happened in the past should not lead to any conclusion about the future.
The sun is likely to rise tomorrow morning. How do we know that? If we didn't have advanced knowledge about astronomy, we wouldn't know for sure.
Previous experiences without explanations are worthless.