Jimmy Strobl

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Will there be jobs in the future?

Robotics and computers can do pretty much everything we can do today, and more! what will tomorrow look like when they do almost everything even better and cheaper then us?

Will there be any jobs left and what should the great number of people that don't have jobs be doing with their time?

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    Jun 8 2011: I love the Star Trek vision of people doing what they do best for the love of doing it. All that energy and love and dedication harnessed for the good of all. I want the role of Deana Troy!
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    Jun 15 2011: consider the jobs in 1400 a.d. you could be a peasant, a smith, or one of the other dozen of jobs available. or you could get lucky, and be a noble man or a servant of a noble man.

    how many percent of the population today works in these areas? in an advanced society, agricultural workers make some 5% of the population. smiths are no more. steel factory workers are below 1%?

    thought experiment: tell the peasant of 1400 that in 2011, some 10% of the entire population will do all the tasks that exist in his day, with the help of machines. he will ask, okay, and what the rest will do? will they be idle?

    we know the answer. sure they aren't! as soon as one job got automatized, people found different things to do. we have so much things we can do to make our lives even better, easier, more funny, more meaningful, and all!
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    Jun 8 2011: well, if everything you need is provided for you, then you might suffer from learned helplessness...

    So we still need contingency experiences (doing something that has a result, but that can fail as well, so you have satisfaction of doing things)

    So many things one can do... play! dance! get together and spend time!

    It is feasible with monetary systems: everybody gets a monthly wage (for free, as it is produced by bots), representing the abundance created.

    And there are services that only humans can provide... (no picture needed)
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      Jun 12 2011: So that's the conclusion that I've reached as well. But how do we get past the "fear of communism" that many will have and how do we build a reward system that works based on this assumption?
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        Jun 14 2011: You might want to look at the model Vivant (a political movement in Belgium) http://www.vivant.org/en
        as a way to get there (no tax on work, tax on consumption; basic income for everybody,...)

        It is not communism, as everybody who is willing to make extra money is allowed to. (It's just not explicitly needed to survive, just for extra luxury or the bonus gained from augmenting abundance)

        Abundance would preferably be defined in terms of earth-yield without diminishing returns.
  • Jul 7 2011: Just a little lis tof careers that didn't exist ten years ago: Social Media Manager, Telework Manager, Sustainability Consultant, Search Engine Optimisation Consultant, Proteomics Scientist etc. etc.

    A lot of kids in my school will do jobs that don't even have titles yet.

    That said, the increasing advent of AI, and possibly the "universal assembler" future of nanotechnology, might dramatically reduce the need for menial work (be it manual or white collar) and allow humans to focus on creative (be it arts or science) jobs.
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    Jul 7 2011: There will be new kinds of jobs in the future.
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      Jul 7 2011: Yes but how many?
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        Jul 7 2011: I believe it will be enough for everyone looking for one. If not enough at least at the same ratio as of today. I cannot think of exact jobs of the future, but I know that as we discover new things there will be tons of stuff to do with them. Robots can do many things, but cannot replace scientists who discover. Robots cannot invent new things and ideas, they are machines. Therefore, engineers, computer scientists, and other scientists will be needed at least for another millennia.
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    Jun 8 2011: Well that depends on how "good" our machines can get. There may be a physical limit to computation that nature has somehow overcome (i.e. our minds). If this is the case, humans will always have jobs, somewhere, somehow.
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      Jun 8 2011: Alright, say that there will always be stuff that only we can do, what will the rest of the population be doing? Because surely we can't all do "that" for a living...
      On the other hand it does seem unlikely that they won't be able to surpass us in every way.
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        Jun 8 2011: Language is a huge barrier with computation at the moment. Computers just don't get sarcasm. So I don't see comedians going the way of the dodo anytime soon....

        But seriously, you have raised a very pertinent question- one that the AI community hasn't really talked about so much (as I am aware of). But I believe I was fair by saying it depends on how much progress we can actually achieve.