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Jack Ophof

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How often do you guess right?

A prediction is basically an educated guess at best, and should have a success-rate about the same as someone who is blindly guessing. Yet, statistically some people should be higher on the success-curve then others. Why? Who are these persons and how do they have such good luck at guessing?

Me and a friend of mine explored that idea in a thought-experiment, and ended up building a tool to harvest some real data regarding the subject.

It would be an honor to invite the TED crowds to play with our little app.
The rules are simple:

• Make a prediction
• Bet on other predictions
• Win points if your prediction turns out to be true
• Rub it your friends faces yelling "I TOLD YOU SO!"
• Help us get the data we need for our thesis

http://bit.ly/KIj7ea (predictr.mutewitness.net)

Here's my (example) prediction:
Quantum Physics will be proven "wrong" (the new Theory will render indeterminism a proof of misinterpretation) (within 10 years)

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    Feb 1 2014: Why would you think an educated guess should have the same success rate as someone blindly guessing?
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      Feb 1 2014: Take entrepeneurs for example, they take a risk (educated guess). They do not blindy pick a choice.
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        Feb 1 2014: I understand what an educated guess is. I do not understand your claim that someone making an educated guess would likely have the same success rate as someone blindly picking a choice.
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          Feb 1 2014: Well thats what we want to find out, although I did not mean to claim that, it was a guess (:
          I should have stated that more clearly (I'm Dutch, so excuse my lapses in grammar)
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          Feb 10 2014: I agree Fritzie that an educated guess might be more successful than a guess that is made blindly.

          My personal practice, is to mindfully gather all relevant, available information, and listen to intuition/instinct. After gathering logical, reasonable information, I let the mind/brain rest and "feel" the choices. That is where instinct/intuition comes into play.....how does that choice "feel".....how do the other choices "feel", based on the information I have at the time. The better choice/decision simply "feels" right for me at that time. The choices and decisions more often than not work out really well.

          I do not "predict" outcomes because I prefer to "BE" in the moment. Once a "prediction" is made, humans sometimes tend to get attached to it with expectations, and are not open to other possibilities.

          Jack,
          Your English grammar is good. Perhaps it might be more helpful to be clear with your thoughts, feelings, ideas and perceptions?

          Thank you for the opportunity to visit your test site, and I have no desire to "Win points" or
          "Rub it your friends faces yelling "I TOLD YOU SO!"

          That serves no useful purpose in my perception.
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        Feb 1 2014: Your grammar is fine. You wrote: "A prediction is basically an educated guess at best, and should have a success-rate about the same as someone who is blindly guessing." If you meant to say that a person making an educated guess should have a HIGHER success rate than someone who is blindly guessing, you can edit your earlier statement. If you meant to say that you want to determine whether someone making an educated guess has the same success rate as someone guessing blindly, you could now edit to say that.

        It seems perhaps that your first sentence says the opposite of what you meant it to say?
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          Feb 1 2014: Thanks a lot, it seems you are absolutely right about your last statement and it should read "A prediction is basically an educated guess at best, and should have a success-rate higher than someone who is blindly guessing. Statistically some people should be higher on the success curve than others"

          So, while editing my post TED gave me an error about a CRFS Attack (dunno what that is)
          Any help would be appreciated.

          And thanks again, criticism is important (:
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        Feb 1 2014: I think notification of a CRFS attack might just be a bug and not mean anything, but I am not "techie." If you look at the bottom of this page, there is a link that reads Contact. You can ask at that link and get a response from an administrator.

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