- Jack Ophof
This conversation is closed.
How often do you guess right?
A prediction is basically an educated guess at best, and should have a success-rate about the same as someone who is blindly guessing. Yet, statistically some people should be higher on the success-curve then others. Why? Who are these persons and how do they have such good luck at guessing?
Me and a friend of mine explored that idea in a thought-experiment, and ended up building a tool to harvest some real data regarding the subject.
It would be an honor to invite the TED crowds to play with our little app.
The rules are simple:
• Make a prediction
• Bet on other predictions
• Win points if your prediction turns out to be true
• Rub it your friends faces yelling "I TOLD YOU SO!"
• Help us get the data we need for our thesis
Here's my (example) prediction:
Quantum Physics will be proven "wrong" (the new Theory will render indeterminism a proof of misinterpretation) (within 10 years)