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Ang Perrier

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Projections for the next 20 years

Based on current global trends, financial, military, social, technological, etc... what are your predictions of what the next 20 years will have in store for your country, state, business, world, or all the above??
Compare what you think will happen to what you hope will happen.





The end of this conversation is drawing near. The theme of which has been very much what I thought it would be. Every one of us can pin point the problems of today that will lead us into a dismal future unless rectified. None of us here on TED has the "power" required to solve these problems. Individually we are far too powerless. Take a look at the size of this online community, there aren't very many of us. We are the people who choose to discuss, debate, and challenge each other. If our need to speak out and communicate about substantial issues was being satisfied completely in our daily lives many of us would not be registered in an online community seeking other like minded individuals who will care about the thoughts we think. An ignorant complacency has been epidemically spreading for too long and feels irreversible which makes the future seem a dark and dreary place. My optimism lies in the fact that we all get "it", we know, we understand, but in order for anything to come out of this understanding of what changes need to be made and what the end result has to be for all of us we need to buckle down and do something. I'm in no way trying to make that a personal attack statement, I don't feel as though we're all standing idly by as everything happens to us.
There were numerous comments suggesting that something big is speeding toward us, a game changer, a war, a revolution, a revelation, a...something. Whatever "it" is I just hope that we can discuss, debate, and challenge each other to become empowered individuals with answers as opposed to a list of problems.

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Closing Statement from Ang Perrier

Thank you for all the contributions :)

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    Aug 9 2013: I think we need to change the whole system if we are to survive the next 2 - 3 years.
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    Aug 31 2013: The end of this conversation is drawing near. The theme of which has been very much what I thought it would be. Every one of us can pin point the problems of today that will lead us into a dismal future unless rectified. None of us here on TED has the "power" required to solve these problems. Individually we are far too powerless. Take a look at the size of this online community, there aren't very many of us. We are the people who choose to discuss, debate, and challenge each other. If our need to speak out and communicate about substantial issues was being satisfied completely in our daily lives many of us would not be registered in an online community seeking other like minded individuals who will care about the thoughts we think. An ignorant complacency has been epidemically spreading for too long and feels irreversible which makes the future seem a dark and dreary place. My optimism lies in the fact that we all get "it", we know, we understand, but in order for anything to come out of this understanding of what changes need to be made and what the end result has to be for all of us we need to buckle down and do something. I'm in no way trying to make that a personal attack statement, I don't feel as though we're all standing idly by as everything happens to us.
    There were numerous comments suggesting that something big is speeding toward us, a game changer, a war, a revolution, a revelation, a...something. Whatever "it" is I just hope that we can discuss, debate, and challenge each other to become empowered individuals with answers as opposed to a list of problems.
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    Aug 10 2013: We are in a 'trapped transition' between two economic development stages - the Information Age ends with Centralised stagnation. The next stage 'Wisdom Networks' crowd creates distributed prosperity. We may be trapped in transition for another 15 years.

    The community (or crowd) has been building the foundation for distributed prosperity for decades - the first three elements data (internet 30 years), information (world wide web 15 years), community (social networks 10 years) ... the next three elements to be distributed are collaboration, knowledge and wisdom will be achieved in less than 5 years with wisdom networks.

    In the Information Age, our technology allows point to point communication. Reach increased from near to far. Speed increased to instant. Our society developed tools based on point to point communication that included hierarchies, centralised knowledge and decision making. The internet has sped up the status quo with neglible productivity benefit. These tools don’t scale and are failing to deliver global prosperity, productivity or equality.

    IF we restructure communities FROM point to point communication and its centralised form in the physical world TO peer to peer collaboration and distributed contribution over the internet, THEN it solves huge problems resulting from Information Age structures and delivers a new era of productivity, growth and distributed prosperity.

    Wisdom Networks are an elective singularity and reshape the status quo using the peer to peer structure of the internet and achieving a rapid jump in productivity, potential output (18.2% to 55%), productive work time (28% to 50-75%) and usher in the new era of prosperity. This is the overdue third revolution in economic development.

    I predict that distributed prosperity will be enabled in less than 2 years with less than 30 networks and 900 people and it will transform the world within 5 years ( http://is.gd/wnimwww ). Citizens will demand societies are organised like Facebook.
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      Aug 26 2013: You paint a very intricate picture. The stages you're referring to, I've never heard of that before but I can absolutely see this playing out. We'll finally utilize the internet for something far more substantial than we have been since its debut.
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    Aug 31 2013: Inter-species understanding , that's where futures at !
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    Aug 28 2013: Based on current trends, we will likely see:

    - The accelerated expansion of technological unemployment.
    - The increased use of robot-assisted surgery.
    - Custom, genetics-based medications and therapies.
    - Regional farm towers (20 to 50 stories tall), which grow food hydroponically to feed local populations.
    - Micro-manufacturing plants, which can produce small batches of custom or semi-custom goods as needed.
    - Textbook-free schools, where the digital "books" can be updated with the latest information nearly instantaneously.
    - Driverless vehicles, which could likely reduce or eliminate traffic jams and accidents, and increase relaxation and productivity.
    - An increased use of nanotechnology, perhaps going so far as to have swarms of "nanobots" descend upon a garbage dump, and systematically break it down at the molecular level, recycling virtually everything.
    - The further development of a "space elevator," which could sharply reduce the costs of transporting materials into orbit.

    Overall, though, I see sustainability as the overarching issue, both for the next 20 years, and the decades that follow. I do not think that our current global system can or will provide all that our planet can for all of its residents. In other words, I believe that the Earth has enough resources to comfortably feed, clothe, shelter, and - by extension - educate the billions that are already here. We need a different way of managing our resources. How this might be done is a very complex question, but one that I think can be answered by pooling our minds and collective desires for a better way of life.
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      Aug 31 2013: So what you're saying is that we need a solution not another band aid for all of our resource problems? :)
      • Sep 3 2013: I feel that there is a need to re-visit the current world order. Come up with a rational new world order, chart out a plan to ensure that the world optimises its resources, develops in a rational way, rather than getting suppressed / being colonised.

        Like how the Internet has been able to be a wonderful leveler, where there are hardly any disparities, the new world order should seamlessly be available to all, without any big-brother attitude.

        Intellectual forums like TED have a great role to play there in pooling the views and help give direction

        Hence, debates like this are absolutely the way to go
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          Sep 4 2013: Can't agree more. And more and more people, feel the same way.
          It will evolve towards that eventually.

          As illustrated by Ramez Naam:
          " [...] We keep on acting in the way we have, pumping carbon into the atmosphere, warming the planet, acidifying the oceans, hunting fish towards the brink of extinction, depleting the last fossil water buried under our lands. On that path, we’ll eventually come to realize that we’ve made a mistake. When the rivers and wells run dry, when we can no longer find the type of fish we used to eat, when the corals we used to admire have all bleached, when droughts and floods and storms wreck our cities and fields, then we’ll realize that we’ve taken the wrong path.

          And then we’ll respond."

          http://www.kurzweilai.net/the-limits-of-the-earth-part-2-expanding-the-limits

          It is going to get interesting for sure. As in life, it is the journey that makes it worth it, not the ends. Hopefully it will be a journey with a minimum amount of suffering. Be prepared and stay strong, I would say. In case we end up in the wheel of time scenario:

          @ 8:04 :
          http://fora.tv/2007/02/15/What_If_the_Singularity_Does_NOT_Happen
  • Aug 25 2013: Commerce will change.
    Wall Street will be shuttered, until Transparency is guaranteed.
    Limited Liability Laws will be rescinded by Congress.
    Articles of Incorporation will be made to contain an integrity clause.
    ===
    Nomads will take their revenge,
    They will do so by development of Drones, Missile Delivery Systems
    with Nuclear Warheads that can pinpoint and hit a target within 1 meter.

    Revenge Wars as are being conducted today will sicken people, and
    they will stop their Geographical Governments from making War upon
    other nation's shores, and lying to their peoples to get their support.
    ===
    Geographical Governments will begin to decline, as Laws and Justice, and
    their required Regulators and Enforcers slide into Consensus Government,
    slated to become world-wide within 50 years.

    Need for Central Banking world-wide will be eliminated and Money saved
    through Non-War economies will raise standards of living world-wide.
    Consensus Government will declare Banking illegal.

    Money saved from War Making will be used to build Green Infrastructure's
    providing more jobs than can be imagined.
    ===
    Geographical Government Corruption will replace murder as the No.1 crime.
    The Arms Industry will be deemed illegal and immoral, dismantled, and all
    Weapons destroyed.

    The United Nations will be re-formatted, much like a computer.
    ===
    I hope that when this happens, we can find out which pockets
    those Spoils of War went into, over these last 80 years.

    I hope the Bankers can find employment building infrastructures.
    I hope the Bush, Clinton, and Obama families do too.
    They will need the work.

    One can only hope.
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    Aug 22 2013: As I read through the comments I was saddened that many of the comments were about the baby boomers dying in order to make things better .... if the tea party dies .... when the old people are gone .... I fully accept that this is a extremely liberal site .... but wishing death on people to get your way is not nice and speaks poorly of the future.

    I am concerned that many programs are being rushed into without a great deal of thought. Radical changes in power production without a real plan in place is .... stupid. Radical changes in the whole medical system without even reading the proposal is .... stupid. To implement welfare (social) programs without funding is .... stupid. To allow government to continue to grow beyond the ability to fund it is ... stupid. To allow the fed to operate without controls is ... stupid. To operate under a Keynesian economic theory allowing to spend past income is ... stupid.

    If these are the wave of the future and the means of governing the country then both the near and far future are in danger of total collapse.

    Considerable damage has been done. Working in small corrections for a extended amount of time will be required. The impact on the future cannot be predicted. The major factors are religious and political. The march toward socialism / communism will eliminate religion and dictate known politics.

    Life in the USA has and will always be altered. Civil strife, anarchy, and wars are foreseeable.

    We have failed to learn from history ... and are therefore doomed to repeat the errors made before us.

    Sorry for the bummer forecast ... but it follows a historical pattern.
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        Aug 22 2013: I have ... please be specific .... at least try to refute any of the above ... other than calling me a conservative .... by the way I am a Independent and attempt to look at all issues without the restrictions of a political platform.
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        Aug 22 2013: Wow. You really should lay off the kool ade. Do not put words in my mouth. You are not even close.
        Stop trying to make things up and read the post without all of your filters.

        Out spending your income is a no brainer ... dumb. Passing any law without reading iot is a no brainer ... dumb. Committing to any program without funding is a no brainer ... dumb.

        Not understanding basic economics .... inexcusable.
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        Aug 22 2013: Wow .... once again your error. If you look I denied it all.
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        Aug 22 2013: Since I have already stated my objections and you have failed to read them .... or to understand them ... we have a communications problem and I shall not continue .... I always look forward to TED exchanges but will not waste time with someone stuck in one agenda ..... good luck
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      Aug 24 2013: Robert,
      Maybe, these youngsters are correct. What good is all the wisdom gained through experience? So, I say, we should go away.. maybe not passing over, just.... fishing. Let these youngsters make all these liberal ideas come to fore. I mean, don't they know better then all our experiences have taught us? Sure, they are smarter then us! Just ask them. And, they won't make all the stupid mistakes that we did. Just ask them.
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          Aug 25 2013: Maybe we should. British researchers have noted a drop in IQ since 1850. And it's beginning to show, I look today and I see contemporary adults (18 -54) more and more relying on technology to amuse and plan and direct their lives. Those that do manage to attain some level of education are more devoted to great social causes then those practical endeavors that could do more for social issues then all the flowery prose of today. The biggest jokes are they claim great new solutions to problems such as fossil fuels etc... when a moment at the library would show them it's mostly all "been there, done that". No the IQ is falling faster then even the Brits imagined.
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    Aug 21 2013: having read the all the posts below.... i would say great projections guys but is that all what the world or we instead needs? How about some more of love between every human? I don;t know about technology but the day every human really wakes up and realizes every person's value, i bet the would become exactly the way it looks from space - united !
  • Aug 17 2013: i wish there is peaceful in the world
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    Aug 11 2013: I believe we are at the verge of a fundamental societal choice. From my perspective it boils down to the question: do we believe that we can live abundantly or not? We are building technology that enables us to do so, but today our economic perspective is one of 'crisis', basically because our economic system has touched its limits.

    If we focus on the lack of things ('crisis') and don't change our economic system, from my perspective, you can expect to see a societal dysfunction (I dislike the word collapse). Today, a large majority of people go to work to earn money to pay for their needs. Our technological advancements though are increasingly replacing the need of human labour

    (take a look at the research of 2 MIT professors on this: http://www.technologyreview.com/featuredstory/515926/how-technology-is-destroying-jobs/)

    In short, this means fewer and fewer people will have an income to pay for their basic needs, pushing the middle class into poverty and crumbling our fiscal systems that have built our societies. I let you fill in the dots what impact this has on a societal level.

    Another avenue over the next years is to implement monetary and public policies that enable this technological advancement for the good of people. It is possible. One avenue that was proposed by Martin Ford was one of a tax redistribution system based on the number of people you employed. In short: technology driven companies would pay higher taxes than 'human' driven companies. Another avenue is to provide everybody with a basic income to fullfil his/her basic needs and work from there.

    The first step is simple though: creating the awareness that abundance is possible if we want it to. If we do not do that, our biology will work against us (fear in your limbic brain will create fight, flight or freeze mechanisms) and we'll end up in a technological dystopia.
    • Aug 12 2013: Bruno: I believe that the real basis of the advanced comfortable level of civilization which, though battered, we still enjoy , was due to 150 years of cheap and abundant coal and oil power. Which is now fading, and getting too expensive . If we want abundance, rather than Life Support , we are going to have to find replacement sources. "Renewables" are not it., basically because they are too expensive for mass use. Luckily the problem was solved 40 years ago, with the invention and demonstration of a safe form of nuclear fission power, a secret design of an aircraft engine, powered by a Liquid fueled Thorium Molten Salt.(LFTR) It does not have all the downsides of the existing nuclear Uranium plants. No fuel rods, no steam, no high pressures, or explosions. The power is cheaper than coal, and Thorium is plentiful , and widely distributed. The reasons we have not been using this for the last 40 years are complex, but largely political and financial. But it's not too late, natural gas will give us a generation or two to figure out why we have not been using the obvious solution to the Energy (Wealth) problem.
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        Aug 12 2013: Shawn, I agree that the fossil fuel era has propelled us forward.I looked into Thorium and it indeed shows to be a valid "safe" alternative for uranium, thanks for this! From my point of view, energy is not the bottleneck on wealth/abundance, it's the monetary/economic system in which the energy provision is plugged. Sure, natural gases will enable us to bridge a part of the gap, but in the mean time we are hurting our ecosystem for short term (monetary) gains.

        From that perspective, the problem is that negative (non monetary) externalities of an activity are "processed" via market economics: only if people find environmental damage that important to be willing to pay more for an alternative or leave the incumbent one, market forces will be positive towards that alternative. Sad and contrary to a logic of living in abundance...
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    Aug 9 2013: :)
    Deep sea rare mineral mining will be a major growth industry, and lead to the first floating ocean city.

    Russia and Snowden will start a NSA proof internet service, and will quickly become the largest internet provider in the world. ;)

    Mexico will have trouble dealing with the massive number of immigrants coming from America looking for freedom and the Mexican dream.

    Or houses will become smarter, but our cars will still be smarter than our houses. But that’s ok because our cars and houses will be able to talk to each other.

    :)
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      Aug 25 2013: Deep sea rare mineral mining? What are these minerals used for?
      A floating ocean city, makes me think of Waterworld with Kevin Costner. :)
  • Sep 5 2013: Think globally and act locally. Live simply so that others can simply live. Reduce, reuse, recycle, rethink, refuse, remediate and replenish. Value our natural capital and reduce the dependency on transporting goods and food. This will extend the capacity of the world to adjust to change. You will not get governments or business telling you to do this.
  • Sep 4 2013: I posit that every response so far is a potential future state, each with a probability of occurrence. Some futures have higher probability, but random events can bring an unlikely situation into reality and obviate higher probability futures. This is why it's impossible to predict the future in detail; you would have to know of all future chance events that change the probabilities.

    This said, there are clear trends that influence the probability of what the world will become. While there are many (all of which could radically change the future and as noted above have the potential to render more likely trends moot), I feel there are four interrelated trends that will have the most impact: population growth, water shortages, environmental change, and exponential advances in technology.

    In 20 years there will be an additional 1.5B people on Earth, bringing the population to 8.5B+. Growth is slowing, but with 7B+ already here, it is inevitable. To provide just the incremental food and shelter will be painful, and in some geographies disastrous.

    Earth is 71% covered in water, but just 1% is available fresh water, created by the hydrologic cycle. Humanity has been diverting increasing volumes of fresh water from this cycle, resulting in negative impacts in other cycles. Water availability will shape economies and populations.

    The evidence that emissions from burning fossil fuel and deforestation have changed climates cannot be denied, but humanity will continue to put economic growth ahead of addressing this issue. The unknown is how rapid and severe the changes will be.

    The accelerating rate of technology advances has the potential to solve some or all of the issues above, but will bring new issues to bear. Barriers to our understanding of all aspects of science are falling at an ever increasing rate. Our expanding command of the physical world will give us ever more control. For example, by 2033 death will no longer be inevitable, for those who can afford it.
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    Sep 4 2013: I don't have time to go through your conversation, but I have to recommend you to read the book "Physic of the future" by Dr. Kaku. It covers a very wide range of topic. The audio version of its runs for 16 hours. You should read or hear it.
  • Sep 3 2013: The whole world is going to see many changes like never before. These changes are going to be propelled by
    i) Technological Innovations
    ii) Economic Realities : - Redistribution of Wealth and Re-Configuring of Trade & Commerce
    iii) Political Instabilities across the world
    iv) Influence of Demography in Development, Trade, Commerce and Power
    v) Revised definition of the World order

    The Bottom of the Pyramid Population, Business Potential on account of the more number of those in the Bottom of the Pyramid will influence most of the changes, along with technology.

    Technological Breakthroughs in Nano Technogy, Genome, Bio Chemical / Bio Mechanical, Information & Communication will lead the change.

    There is a likely hood of chaos on account of re-definition of Economic Activities influenced more by the countries like China, Mexico, Africa, India, Brazil, Russia, Turkey, Gulf Region than the currently developed world of the USA, Europe, Japan etc. Such chaos could become more complex to manage / contain.

    Fossil Fuel, Drinking Water would become largely contentious items and influence the chaos.

    Qualitative Improvements across the world would be minimal. The Real relevance of the Internet would have been understood.

    World over, extensive use of Technology would be seen in the Education space.

    On the whole, the first 10 years are like to be largely going through turbulent times, with the stock markets constantly under strain, not much clear direction emerging. The second 10 years would largely attain maturity and direction. If not managed properly, world over, there will be awkward situations.

    The Need of the hour : A Real World Governing Forum, not like the current UN. The new World Governing forum should represent the current realities of the world, not try to hold on to its legacy, which is no longer relevant.
    • Sep 3 2013: Replying your opinion about new world governing forum, its really can happen because of the changing of the world power to the next developed country which many of nato country member that getting economics crisis, and of course US which has many debts,losing much money for war and getting economics crisis. But iam still not sure US will go down because they still has many oil stock, and if the jewish don't want US lost their power, US will still stand even in dark hour.Back to topic,the current world power will change to the new economics giant beacuse economics power really critical

      btw nice analysis mate bad format cause replying using phone
      • Sep 4 2013: Thanks Andrew!

        I deliberately avoided polarised views, as I felt touching upon those would remove the focus from other real / critical requirements.

        When UN was formed, the world had an entirely different set of realities which were relevant at that point in time. Now those assumptions need to be revisited entirely and current realities need to be factored for formulating the relevant / revised world order

        One important aspect to be focused on : What should be the basis for the power equation - relative position - of the various countries? Should it be political strength? Or should it be Military Strength? Or should it be economic? Should it be Education? Should it be Technology? I think the list could be endless. I keep an open mind for ideas.
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    Aug 30 2013: Our natural resources become depleted and the over growing human population may induce a greater strain to the limited production of food supply. I believe that if this cardinal issue is not being catered well started from now, a bloody war can be anticipated for a piece of pie. Although we acknowledge that our scientist already embarked on the research for a better solution, the will power of political side still play as a vital force to expedite the process or vice versa.

    As for my country, I still have great faith as our resources and food supply are still intact. However, the food supply tends to diminishing as the demand for palm oil increases. The booming property sector also demanding for more land. This has resulted to the mass clearing of the forest reserve and the conversion of agriculture land. The trend keeps on increases.

    To be honest, I'm not sure if the next 20 years will be better. We as the present community must do our part regardless of small or huge contribution in order to provide a better or close to better future.
  • Aug 30 2013: Life as we know it in an evolutionary process. Nothing remains the same. This is a personal view base on knowledge acquired. If you stop and try to eliminate what a man of many word said and quote" Don't let the Chatter distract you". It all makes sense. It is imposible not to accept that today we are at point A and tomorrow we may be at point B or C. It all depends on the individual's focus and choice. You decide to stand still and confide that other(s) will do for you.... so cahnges still occur but whose benefit? I extrapolate that we all must play the role we came into this world to play and not intend to play the role give or pursue by some else. As I was told once, no everyone can be a horse racing Jokey or a Doctor, or a Lawyer, we came to perform a role. So, let us get to it.
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      Aug 31 2013: What happens when the role you were born to play is eliminated?
  • Aug 30 2013: Life will change, is for certain. The velocity of change, though, is unlikely to match that of the last 3-4 decades. Its inherent as human beings or any being for that matter to resist change. Or at least be apprehensive towards it. But if you come to think about it judiciously, you will agree to appreciating the changes that life underwent since before you were born, till today. We all will agree, in one way or another. To an extent or less. But agree we will.
    (I know we have a school of thought that says life was simpler once. Not very long ago. But what is debatable is whether it was better. Better, for that matter, is subjective to opinion!)
    Now the question i want to ask is, why then we frown upon what is yet to come? Why do we say nay, to what we don't know about? Why can't we take it in our stride and give change a direction. Because that, we can do. That's in our control. What is to happen - not so much.
    Why waste life, moping around, trying to fill heads with apprehensions about times to come? I have observed a trend in most people, and i know i am generalizing, but then i am just trying to make a point here. People as they go further in life, tend to become more pessimistic. I think it is just how the human mind works. We justify what we undertook once and we support our actions with circumstantial evidence and explanations. But we tend to shoot things down and share a word of caution or two, when we look at the youth doing something that we define as "reckless". This is true: in life, technology and business. Think about it.
    Personally, i believe that life and the world around it at large has changed for better. Even with all its complexities, its imperfections, its drawbacks, life is still loved. It is still worth living. Perhaps more than ever.
    So choose to believe in what is to come. Chose to trust. Have faith. I know i do. If you can influence and give it a sense of meaning and a direction, do it. But while you do, mean well. I know, i try.
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      Aug 31 2013: I'm not trying to justify a pessimistic attitude but as we travel through our lives we tend to observe the number of people not learning from mistakes. Whether it be mistakes that they've made personally or someone else, whether it's from ignoring the lessons that history was supposed to teach us, or what have you. It's frustrating and some of the outcomes can be devastating for a great many people.
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    Aug 28 2013: If it isnt broken, then they will break and rebuild it again to best fit the minds of the future that will most likely be focused on survival and progressive evolution.
  • Aug 26 2013: In the next 20 years, I think and hope we will begin a re-sensitizing process that will cause us to reconnect with our souls. The quest for speed will be less important, and we will begin to enjoy the journey. We will see less focus on these tech startups that are creating nothing more than distractions.
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      Aug 31 2013: YAY!!!! I would love to see that happen :)
  • Gord G 50+

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    Aug 23 2013: The next twenty years will unfold according to what we think. Change what we think and the next twenty years will follow. We imagine our future into being. Somehow the self evident is lost in the lure of aggrandized fantasy.
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      Aug 23 2013: However inevitably we categorize our thinking into what we feel will happen regardless of what we want, and what we actually want to happen ends up being thought of as wishful thinking.
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    Aug 22 2013: Whatever happens over the next 20 years, it is bound to be driven by accelerated uncertainty.
    Faster technology developments will continue to shift power balances, unpredictable weather patterns will affect food production, and an increasingly volatile and fragile economic system will up the ante generally.
    All this will result in people becoming more scared which will drive them psychologically to behave from baser survival instincts. In turn a scared and needy population will "invite" strong leaders to emerge to sort out the mess and bring some sense of stability; however, this will come at a price - democracy.
    How much people will trade in their democratic rights in order for some strong (or puppet) leader to assure them that everything will be O.K, remains to be seen - the passing of the Patriot Act after 9-11 is not a good sign.
    Any wild card of some global disaster happening (mass disease, economic melt-down, catastrophic climate change) will only add impetus to the emergence of a global dictator who will seize the opportunity in the ensuing outcry and chaos (viz Russia in 1989).
    That's my pessimistic view;

    I also have an optimistic view. We will at last get some spiritually and psychologically mature sane leaders who are not afraid of an empowered populace but see empowerment of the masses as actually making the job of governance easier. The simple solutions that already abound to solve the world's problems will actually be implemented, rather than being side-stepped in favor of the funding the next crazy war.
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      Aug 23 2013: Scared people utilize baser survival instincts. A scary thought.

      I find it discomfitting that what your statement reveals is that really what we are looking for in a leader is some sanity, maybe a little humanity, and someone who doesn't despise us for having the ability to think. Why is it that something like that is so rare?
  • Aug 21 2013: I was told that Confucius was asked what does a stable government must have in order to continue its rule. He answered - Military, food security and trust. Pressed whether the government could continue its rule with only 2 elements. Confucius said yes with food security and trust. Whatif only one element? Confucius said yes - trust. Without trust the government will fall. Trust is the most abused value today by just about all entities of the society so the projections for the next 20 years - constant and endless conflicts between member entities of the society and between nations. Whilst science and technology will progress by leaps and bounds and the society at large the world over will continue to benefit from the applications, personal freedom and privacy will be compromisedfurther in the name of peace and democracy. Collusion between the rich, priviledged and powerful will distort the fair distribution of wealth and further erode what little trust left. Whilst material gains for masses will continue the mysery index will increase substantially. Towards the ending years of the projections, emergence of even more forceful leaders and messiahs will heigthen the chasm of the society. The UN will become as impotent as ever hijacked by powerful nations for selfish reasons. Regional conflicts between nations will have reached crisis points as diminishing natural resources and natioal interests and hold of pawer to stay in power make the issues insoluble as trust finally disappears. Crackdowns and more crackdowns lead to despair and desperation eventually power comes from the barrel of the gun as trust finally ready to make its exit from the human race -
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      Aug 31 2013: People seem to be seriously lacking any kind of motivation to earn trust. There are too many people to swindle and too little time.
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    . . 100+

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    Aug 21 2013: ...everyone will have watched one TED talk.
  • Aug 20 2013: people will marry different background different country ,rich people more rich poor people make be better than now , and the technologic with the computer and intelligent of robot will do more work in human life .
  • Aug 19 2013: Shame shit, different day. A true realist. :)
  • Aug 14 2013: I also agree that we are in a transition period right now. I suppose that good outcomes could be achieved through good practice examples of alternative living in the next 20 years. What I mean is the actual application and adaption of good practice examples in real life. Good examples could be located anywhere in the world, in any country, region, city or village. This may be the restructure and application of new technologies, like renewable energy and robotic technology in the economy. At the same time, old technologies like fossil energy need to be reduced or even redundantized. But the current economic system inhibits such processes, as it is highly founded on debts and other dependencies (fossil fuel etc.). Therefore it depends much on capital investments and capital revenues (profit). A total change requires a collapse of the contemporary economic system, followed by a redistribution of capital, technology and resources. But an economic change needs to be accompanied by a societal change. So it needs a new definition of the modern lifestyles, because modern lifestyles and economies are highly interconnected with consumerism.
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    Aug 13 2013: Here are some projections in detail, video-form.
    All of them have been uploaded in 2011-2012, interesting to see projections for 2012 and 2013....

    Everything from when next FIFAs will take place to datastorage in exabytes, nanofabrics, bionic eyes, collapse of EU, manned mission to Mars etc. Watching all three takes almost 25 minutes, just a warning.

    Enjoy:

    The 2010s:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?annotation_id=annotation_233021&feature=iv&src_vid=1Lmd3l0W5JI&v=j4YDcx3aP20

    The 2020s:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=1Lmd3l0W5JI

    ...and the 2030s:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LdtKUW94tVA

    See you in the future :) I can't wait!
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    Aug 13 2013: 20 years is a long period for a human life, a very long one for technology developers, and a very small one for human civilization , not to say for our planet. So I believe we will see more of what we have today with some local crisis around the world like Mandy Fischer ´s saying , some Dragon Kings appearing and if we are lucky, one or two black swans, one good, probably in medicine advance and a bad one in energy shortage.