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Mitch SMith

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Should we trust the invisible hand?

James B Glattfelder outlines an emergent entity in his study of transnational company data.

Is this entity trustworthy?

Please state your reasons for trust or otherwise on the assumption that this emergent entity exists.

I'd also be interested in your opinion of whether the entity outlined in the math is essentially separate from the people who created it?

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    Feb 21 2013: Are we too far away? No one else seems interested by such conversation.
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      Feb 21 2013: This line of thinking is not easy.

      Comprehending non-linearity is usually not profitable - in the short term, all lines look straight.

      The participants of TED conversations are usually deep-thinkers, but still humans. If we were talking about an emotional topic, the buttons would all be pressed and participation would be high.

      I am pleased with the participation so far.
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      Feb 21 2013: Here's an insight for you:

      I'm preparing to do a market demand model in netlogo, so I'm looking at adaptive mutation models for prep, and I've noticed something hat has not been remarked (to my knowledge)

      An upswing in a chart might represent it's own dynamic - but it might also represent the onset of a modulation being induced by an impacting system - which will ultimately de-stabilse the outcome.
      Thus apparent gains can often be the symptoms of impending crash.

      I will develop this notion into my model .. might take a few weeks.
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        Feb 22 2013: Keep me aware of it. Very interesting. geebee090@gmail.com.
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          Feb 22 2013: Yes. will do.

          I have marked your address - might be an idea to obscure your adress to prevent bots collecting it onto spam-lists.

          Another thing has occured to me - the principle of diminishing returns appears in the Logistic map. I'm quite excitred about this observation.

          Before today, I had a concept of diminishing returns, but I had a separate concept of the "ghost in the machine". Today I realise they are one in the same.

          If you extrapolate the Logistic map into chaos, you will see the "ghost-lines". The Logistic is really easy to plot it is just algebra and describes population levels over a given carrying capacity with the Y axis on reproduction rate. it is Xthis = Reproduction rate times (Xlast-(Xlastsquared)). THis expresses population level as a fraction of carrying capacity. It's quite famous .. what it does is track the "attractor" as it progresses from fixed-point to oscillating to "strange"(chaotic).
          But it is far from stochastic - the ghost-lines persist to track the trajectory of the attractor itself. If you mapped a strategy of the prevailing trend, it would be accurate in a diminishing degree until the system actually settles into a stability that will include the prediction - at that point, the prediction would join all other predictions as part of the period that has resolved.
          This infers an equal wrongness/rightness of "justifications". Thus protagonists of obsolete predictions will be on equal footing for equally wrong justifications - making history and all things based upon it invalid without comprehending the underlying causality.
          So. from that I invalidate the axiom: "those who do not learn the lessons of the past are destined to repeat it".
          This is false. History provides only historical trends - no arguement based on history is valid in the present beyond contradictory justifications.
          The phase shift back into chaos precipitates the new paradigm.
          And then that paradigm will suffer the fate of the ones before it until the next phase.
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          Feb 22 2013: Here - wiki (as always) has the greatest quality of this subject:
          http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_map

          So .. look at the real-time animated graph - but, mostly, look at the bifurcation map - if you look at this, you will see the "ghosts" that I refer to.

          I mapped this thing constantly on my little computer back in the 1980s and O zoomed-in to the ghost lines .. asking to myself: "what is this?"
          And in fact - i can see it any time - I just light the end of a cigarette and watch the rising plumex through a slit of sunlight cast through my curtains and see the logistic being done right before my eyes.
          And I see it in the expression of tradition in folk music.
          I see it in the sound that is produced in the flutes I make - and I go hunting for a return that has not been diminished.
          If I can get a policy formula for this kind of success - it will be my gift of this time. After that, better men than me will produce paradigms that we cannot know - except that they will come when they are due.

          How does this map against your chart?
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          Feb 22 2013: Chaos is with us right now.

          All we ever knew is wrong - and getting wronger in every milisecond.

          Prepare to change - nothing you have ever experienced is relevant to what you see.

          Look to the young, stop teaching them and be taught.

          Failure is a necessary death.

          But that is more than OK - would you live if living meant the death of your child?

          We are humans! We are not afraid of fear!

          We will die for our children - and that is our ultimate power!

          (edit: look around you .. the fearful are already dead - their death cannot be murder.. abandon your guilt - it was never yours)

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