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Yogesh Gupta

Reservoir Engineer, Shell International E&P

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Can someone please correct my economics?

In India, 55% population is working in agriculture sector, 20%-25% in service and industry sector, 7-10% in public sector, 10% nearly unemployed.

Though the service and industry sector in India contributes the most to the GDP (55%), population wise it employs the least (20-25%).

If say the developed nations demand less goods and services, this would mean developing nations like India would see fall in exports of goods and services and also see fall in its imports of energy like oil an gas. This would create a surplus of supply in energy sector and costs would go down.

Hence, if the developed nations reduce the import of goods and services from India, I agree it may contribute in less income to nearly 20-25% of the population involved in the service and industry sector, but would help nearly 70% of the population to have an increase in their income as their energy costs (direct and indirect) go down.

The current economic difference between the poor and rich is very high. I believe this slow down will give time to the country to bring about a balance.

In the current economic crisis, many companies let go the most experienced staff or elderly staff and retained the young ones since they are low cost to the company. I believe similar effect will be seen if a slowdown happens in India. The rich elderly executives will be forced retired (can still lead a good life) and on the other hand the 70% population gets a chance to catch up with the rich.

Let me know if i am missing something in my view.


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    Dec 13 2012: Well I do not sit with the policy makers on daily basis. :D
    So I am as aware of the companies seriousness as shown in public.

    Renewables at the current stage are not economical and not continous in nature (reliability of sun, wind, etc)
    If you watched HardTalk on BBC with our CEO Peter Voser, you might get a hint to what he is thinking about renewables.

    I feel that even using renewables is not going to help us reduce emissions till we actually reduce our consumption of fossil fuels and also plant more and more trees.
    • Dec 13 2012: Thanks for the hint on the BBC interview. I haven't seen it, but I'll look for it. Generally, I don't trust top-level people. They hide a lot of things. One of the huge companies I worked for sold off a division. The day it was announced to the world, it came as a shock to most employees of that division. But, the rumour mills knew all along.

      We (people) have two contradictory worries... CO₂ and peak-oil, peak-coal, etc. I don't know which of them will hit us first and which will affect us more severely. But if we are hit by peak- oil or coal, we won't have to worry about CO₂. They are both excellent reasons to get into renewables.

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