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Brian Ross

Publisher & Editor-in-Chief , TheRossGroupFT LLC

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Is the conservative movement at a point of historic realignment that will dump or marginalize the Republican Party?

My contention, which I put forth at my blog (truth-2-power.com) is that elitist America, from the Federalists to the Whigs to the Republicans goes through cycles that align with swings in their political power that create the kind of pro-wealth policies that lead to overheating one or more sectors of the economy, its ultimate melt-down, and re-assumption of control by the populists of whatever monicker that the day calls them.

Well before the mainstream media got there, I have documented the sources who fund major political movements in the GOP, and the very un-Civil War inside the party.

The problem for the GOP is that both factions are extremist. The Necons represent the military-industrial sub-class of American fascism and the Libertarian/Koch/Norquist faction are the Taft "robber-baron" fascists straight out of the 19th century, or, as we refer to them, the "Dead Billionaires Club".

The moderates are purged in the primaries. Sen. Dick Lugar (R-In) is the latest example. They do this even when it undermines the mainstream connections to the electorate.

Historically this is with precedent. Hard-liners in the GOP will rationalize 2010 and their true belief in the message and not move much. Which leaves everyone from Chris Christie to purgees like Charlie Crist looking at 32-35% of the electorate that is fiscally conservative but not socially so, and thinking there is a win in disavowing the power structures of the GOP.

They won't go quietly into the night, ergo a high likelihood that a new conservative party will emerge and send the extremist GOP into the history books.

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  • Nov 20 2012: Are these people reall onservative? What does the Rep;ublican elite really want?
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    Nov 20 2012: The key is the womens vote ... Romney was turning the corner because the women pay the bills and the money was being stretched and reality was at the supermarket ... right up till the senator stated that Rape is the will of God ... then another more powerful message hit them .. bye bye womens vote.

    I do not see anything helping the economy if we maintain the current path .. which we will. The dislike of Congress and the path being followed never showed up during the election ... the same people are back in. The promise of transparency never occurred ... The use of Executive Orders instead of the historical act of Congress does not seem to bother anyone .. To encourage class warefare while we set up a elietist class in the administration that seems to be ignored ... to make laws for the masses while the elietists excuse themselves from the same laws ... The warnings of people like Yuri Bezmenov go unheeded .... A Russian endorsement of John Kerry for Secretary of State would have killed the career of anyone a few years ago and now it is accepted and a good thing ... Now just where in these events would you expect the Republician party to enter or make a dent.

    The answer is more than likely in the advent of the millions of Independents. People who are fed up with both sides and the hidden political agendas.

    Socialism has won the day. When you say the country will still be here are you implying that in the next four years there will be a turn around and we will go from our aa- back to a AAA credit rating? That the Constitution will survive the abuse being heeped upon it. That big government and social programs will not break us. That states will not go bankrupt from the likes of Obamacare? That printing more money will solve our problems?

    Independents, like me, will help to shape the next platforms. There will always be people that can be led by either party. They will depend on sheeple votes but they must work for our vote.
  • Nov 26 2012: The Republicans are finished as a realistic option for the American electorate because all they have to offer is wishful thinking, dogmatic, wind-the-clock-back BS. Romney managed to alienate half the voters in one go, on more than one occassion; ie women, in one instance, non-rich people on another. The demographic has changed beyond recognition ( to a Republican ) in the USA. They blew billions preaching to the choir and completely failed to realise that the America of the near future wil be predominantly non-white and non-"traditional". Taking legal control of women's bodies, divorcing gay couples by Constitutional Amendment, making life "so uncomfortable" for upwards of 10 000 000 illegal aliens that they "self deport" ? What is that if it isn't living in the past?
    Add to all that the obscene wealth of that asset-stripping sociopath and honest, upright, working people were supposed to believe he feels their pain? Incredible! He has no clue what ordinary people go through to try and make it work. ( Oh, and - if you're a girly -" be home in time to make dinner".)
    Those dinosaurs need to die off before their party stands any chance of election.
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    Nov 22 2012: The conservative movement has certainly changed a lot since conservative Barry Goldwater ran for president. It is not even recognizable as the same movement.

    Today, conservative tends to be seen as belligerent, christian, white, & exclusionary. That wasn't always the case. Goldwater had the courage to stand up to the theocrat christians - but then he lost. I think he lost because of the commercial that is memorable even for today's viewers. (Young child and atom bomb). Today, the arch-conservative of his time would be called a blue-dog Democrat. (Fiscal conservative, social liberal)

    For as long as there is something to fear, fear-mongers will stir up the radical right. The more they do that, the less power they have. The Tea Party cost Republicans the electon. I will be curious to see how they come to terms with that.
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    Nov 20 2012: Looking at voting trends since Wilson we see that the collective wisdom of the electorate gives the White House to the Reds for two terms, then to the Blues for two terms. Further, they never give the White House and the Congress to the same party. That is how it will always be. Just as the Democrat candidate was assured victory in '08, so is the Republican (or whatever) candidate in '16. So, your question is moot.
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    Nov 20 2012: The white-Christian Tea Party has to go, but how to you expunge 30-35% of your base without killing yourself off?

    Rather than using outreach to find women, Hispanics, non-Christians, and white urbanites (but not blacks), the Republicans really should be using educational outreach to reach the exclusionary Tea Partiers, who are so willfully uninformed, and who, in large part, believe that they will be raptured before the sh*t they stand behind hits the fan. Reps really should boycott Fox News and Rush Limbaugh until they stand for something other than hate and inequality.

    Democrats have a similar war at play. I believe that the reason Obama won is because those who were gravely disappointed by Obama were terrified of the hate and religious (theocratic) fervor of the Republican Party. The penalties that the Tea Party wants to inflict on women (a majority) and almost every minority was terrifying.
  • Nov 19 2012: "They won't go quietly into the night, ergo a high likelihood that a new conservative party will emerge and send the extremist GOP into the history books."

    I don't know, an economically conservative but socially liberal platform could have won Mitt Romney the presidency in 2012, but it may have been the last time such a platform could win anyone the presidency. The ultra-conservative right wing of the republican party will die along with its aging constituency (although I'm sure they'll last just long enough to oppose equal rights for artificial intelligences). Whether this will lead to the the moderate republicans taking over the party (or starting a new one), or the democrats splitting in two (with the blue dog dems taking in former moderate republicans) is anyone's guess.
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    Nov 19 2012: Will the country exist? Unless you've taken a recent course in Sarte and Camus and decided that nothing is real, yes.
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      Nov 19 2012: Don't know what that is. But with the debt I wonder why it is you are certain the country will be here?
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        Nov 19 2012: Let's not go nuts worrying over the debt. As a percentage of the Gross National Product, the debt is not as high today as it was after World War II.
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          Nov 20 2012: Well here is a little fun fact, the debt service on just the 16 trillion current debt is 250 billion per year at roughly 1.5% interest if that goes to the historical normal of 5% just the debt service will be 750 billion per year.

          The current revenue is around 2.5 trillion. So 30% of the revenue will go to current debt.

          Not to mention that they spend another 1.5 trillion above that with more borrowed money

          Not to mention that the unfunded liabilities are in excess of 100 trillion dollars.

          If I'm nuts tell me how otherwise if the shoe fits...
        • Nov 26 2012: The WW 2 was closely followed by practically full employment, an era when the US was mining and drilling and milling and manufacturing for itself, like we in the UK used to do.
          Along come Thatcher and "Reaganomics" and we decide to make huge swathes of our own people redundant in favour of cheaper imports. Colombian coal shipped to British power-plants, for example. Coal mined by children as young as 5. How the hell can a developed nation's workforce compete with child slavery? A question I've been asking since the 80s : We export all our jobs to China, China exports all its unemployment to us; THEN WHAT ?
          Our problem in the 1st world is, we don't know what the hell we want, but we know we want it cheap! Dozens of Chinese workers have commited suicide in the plant that churns out funky gadgets for Apple because of the concentration-camp conditions. Why not have a factory in the US making the damned things? OK, an iPad / Pod / Phone would cost a few more bucks. Big deal ! It would've created thousands of badly needed jobs !
          Protectionist ? OK, if you like to call it that, better that than entire (formerly industrial) cities full of (formerly industrious) people with nothing to do but seek refuge in drug or alchohol induced oblivion.
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          Nov 30 2012: According to OMB published figures the 1950 % was 92.7 and the 2010 % was 93.4
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    Nov 19 2012: Are you talking about the kondratieff cycle?

    Will the country even exist to accept a new political party?