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Robert Winner

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Are you a beliver in Nate Silver

In the last two elections Nate Silver has been right on target. Gallop Polls which have been the standard for years came in behind IPSOS, google, and way behind Silver.

This year Silver and his magic formula predicted every out come with one error a Senate seat in North Dakota.

To view the future of polling read his book "The Signal and the Noise".

What do you think the significance of Silvers polls are in the future of elections?

What will this mean to Gallop and Harris and the other old guards?

How could this effect the primaries and even the nomination selections?

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    Nov 12 2012: Ken Brown mentioned that book as well. Everyone I listen to had it wrong even the Redskin Rule was wrong.
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      Nov 13 2012: A little voice keeps saying to me ... if I was the party chair (both) I would very carefully analyze the formula and adjust my platform and the candidates to meet some of the requirements he has identified.

      Romney met some bad luck .. he was gaining with the womens vote about the time the guy in Missouri claimed that rape is the will of God .. poof womans vote gone. I don't think that any economist / pollister could ever account for that sort of obsticle.

      I would hope that there is a learning curve to be noticed and incorporated here. I looked at the pre-election pollisters and noticed that there were about thirty to fifty involved along with all of the major networks. That equals a pretty penny. I can easily see Silver plus three for a balance in the next election cycle.

      I think that his influence will be that great .... Whatcha think?
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        Nov 13 2012: I don't know anything about Silver but when I can I will read up.

        I think where Romney went wrong was pointed out by Krauthammer it was with immigration and the Hispanic vote as Hispanics are natural Republicans.

        The other area was what the Sowell man pointed out that elections are won by the aggressor Truman v Dewey, and McCain, Dole etc

        http://www.creators.com/opinion/thomas-sowell.html

        And as you point out the women's vote in my thread the 3 that gave me answers said they did not feel Romney respected women, which is of course ludicrous, I think this was the product of so many unanswered attack ads.

        Obama's campaign never left Ohio so that has what a 3 yr head start.

        I would think politics is becoming money ball?

        But do you really think there will be a next presidential election?

        Is America now going to be Mad Max or 1984?

        One other thing I wanted to add Obama dodged a bullet on the Benghazi deal that with Petraeus resigning just don't smell right. Romney pushed it but should driven it. Something is going to come out on that which would of been devastating to Obama had it come out when Romney brought it up in the debate.

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