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Are you a beliver in Nate Silver
In the last two elections Nate Silver has been right on target. Gallop Polls which have been the standard for years came in behind IPSOS, google, and way behind Silver.
This year Silver and his magic formula predicted every out come with one error a Senate seat in North Dakota.
To view the future of polling read his book "The Signal and the Noise".
What do you think the significance of Silvers polls are in the future of elections?
What will this mean to Gallop and Harris and the other old guards?
How could this effect the primaries and even the nomination selections?
pat gilbert 50+
Robert Winner 50+
This is the year.
Bob.
Krisztián Pintér 200+
http://isnatesilverawitch.com/
Theodore A. Hoppe 200+
The way this will change political primaries is that we will no longer allow small states like Iowa, with its small caucus group format that represent a very narrow populous, to pick the front runner in national elections
“Projection, prediction, assumption, trepidation, anticipation, expectation, estimation… we wouldn’t have 80 words like this in the English language if it wasn’t central to our lives. We tend not to take prediction seriously because, on some level, we know that we don’t know. Silver shows us how this inevitable part of life goes awry when projected on a grand scale into the murky worlds of politics, science and economics. Dancing through chess, sports, snowstorms, global warming and the McLaughlin Group, he makes a serious and systematic effort to show us how to clean the noise off the signal.”
—Bill James, author of The Bill James Baseball Abstracts
In an age of "Big Data" what Silver is doing is necessary and will improve our lives.
Fritzie Reisner 100+
As Ed wrote, though, I hope almost no one thinks it is safe to vote on the basis of what the polls say. While I don't know anyone who votes with the polls in order to be able to say he picked a winner, I know people sometimes are so confident that their candidates will win without their votes that they do not cast a vote unless they think their vote is 'needed."
edward long 100+
pat gilbert 50+
Robert Winner 50+
Romney met some bad luck .. he was gaining with the womens vote about the time the guy in Missouri claimed that rape is the will of God .. poof womans vote gone. I don't think that any economist / pollister could ever account for that sort of obsticle.
I would hope that there is a learning curve to be noticed and incorporated here. I looked at the pre-election pollisters and noticed that there were about thirty to fifty involved along with all of the major networks. That equals a pretty penny. I can easily see Silver plus three for a balance in the next election cycle.
I think that his influence will be that great .... Whatcha think?
pat gilbert 50+
I think where Romney went wrong was pointed out by Krauthammer it was with immigration and the Hispanic vote as Hispanics are natural Republicans.
The other area was what the Sowell man pointed out that elections are won by the aggressor Truman v Dewey, and McCain, Dole etc
http://www.creators.com/opinion/thomas-sowell.html
And as you point out the women's vote in my thread the 3 that gave me answers said they did not feel Romney respected women, which is of course ludicrous, I think this was the product of so many unanswered attack ads.
Obama's campaign never left Ohio so that has what a 3 yr head start.
I would think politics is becoming money ball?
But do you really think there will be a next presidential election?
Is America now going to be Mad Max or 1984?
One other thing I wanted to add Obama dodged a bullet on the Benghazi deal that with Petraeus resigning just don't smell right. Romney pushed it but should driven it. Something is going to come out on that which would of been devastating to Obama had it come out when Romney brought it up in the debate.
george lockwood 20+