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Robert Winner

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Are you a beliver in Nate Silver

In the last two elections Nate Silver has been right on target. Gallop Polls which have been the standard for years came in behind IPSOS, google, and way behind Silver.

This year Silver and his magic formula predicted every out come with one error a Senate seat in North Dakota.

To view the future of polling read his book "The Signal and the Noise".

What do you think the significance of Silvers polls are in the future of elections?

What will this mean to Gallop and Harris and the other old guards?

How could this effect the primaries and even the nomination selections?

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    Nov 12 2012: As the purpose of polls is to make predictions, I would expect the old guard to tweek their methodologies to make better predictions next time around.

    As Ed wrote, though, I hope almost no one thinks it is safe to vote on the basis of what the polls say. While I don't know anyone who votes with the polls in order to be able to say he picked a winner, I know people sometimes are so confident that their candidates will win without their votes that they do not cast a vote unless they think their vote is 'needed."
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    Nov 15 2012: Nate Silver predicted that the Mike Trout of the Angels would win the American League Rookie of the year over the triple crown winner Miguel Cabrera and he was right. Who would of thunk that? This is getting serious forget politics we are talking baseball.
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      Nov 16 2012: Quick write him and get a fix on the Cubs.

      This is the year.

      Bob.
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    Nov 13 2012: i present a little more insight on the issue

    http://isnatesilverawitch.com/
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    Nov 13 2012: Let's look at the title of Silver's book, "The Signal and the Noise" since it is a description of what Silver is addressing. In scientific terms, "the noise" is the sea of information that is generated on a specific topic. Sliver is merely improving upon the way "the signal," a specific bit of information, is teased out of the noise, by refining how the noise is measured. It might be baseball player performances or an election performance of a candidate.
    The way this will change political primaries is that we will no longer allow small states like Iowa, with its small caucus group format that represent a very narrow populous, to pick the front runner in national elections

    “Projection, prediction, assumption, trepidation, anticipation, expectation, estimation… we wouldn’t have 80 words like this in the English language if it wasn’t central to our lives. We tend not to take prediction seriously because, on some level, we know that we don’t know. Silver shows us how this inevitable part of life goes awry when projected on a grand scale into the murky worlds of politics, science and economics. Dancing through chess, sports, snowstorms, global warming and the McLaughlin Group, he makes a serious and systematic effort to show us how to clean the noise off the signal.”
    —Bill James, author of The Bill James Baseball Abstracts

    In an age of "Big Data" what Silver is doing is necessary and will improve our lives.
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    Nov 12 2012: I am not a believer in any poll. I don't think oddsmakers have a role to play in something so important as the American people making their choices for the disbursement of political power. Votes should be cast based on individual characteristics of candidates and issues. Why does it matter who the odds favor? I know some folks vote the odds just so they boast about picking a winner. I call that The Yankees Fan syndrome. I hope there are more "Cubs fans" in America than we think. Theses are people who support enthusiastically what they personally believe in, rather than what the oddsmakers say.
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    Nov 12 2012: Ken Brown mentioned that book as well. Everyone I listen to had it wrong even the Redskin Rule was wrong.
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      Nov 13 2012: A little voice keeps saying to me ... if I was the party chair (both) I would very carefully analyze the formula and adjust my platform and the candidates to meet some of the requirements he has identified.

      Romney met some bad luck .. he was gaining with the womens vote about the time the guy in Missouri claimed that rape is the will of God .. poof womans vote gone. I don't think that any economist / pollister could ever account for that sort of obsticle.

      I would hope that there is a learning curve to be noticed and incorporated here. I looked at the pre-election pollisters and noticed that there were about thirty to fifty involved along with all of the major networks. That equals a pretty penny. I can easily see Silver plus three for a balance in the next election cycle.

      I think that his influence will be that great .... Whatcha think?
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        Nov 13 2012: I don't know anything about Silver but when I can I will read up.

        I think where Romney went wrong was pointed out by Krauthammer it was with immigration and the Hispanic vote as Hispanics are natural Republicans.

        The other area was what the Sowell man pointed out that elections are won by the aggressor Truman v Dewey, and McCain, Dole etc

        http://www.creators.com/opinion/thomas-sowell.html

        And as you point out the women's vote in my thread the 3 that gave me answers said they did not feel Romney respected women, which is of course ludicrous, I think this was the product of so many unanswered attack ads.

        Obama's campaign never left Ohio so that has what a 3 yr head start.

        I would think politics is becoming money ball?

        But do you really think there will be a next presidential election?

        Is America now going to be Mad Max or 1984?

        One other thing I wanted to add Obama dodged a bullet on the Benghazi deal that with Petraeus resigning just don't smell right. Romney pushed it but should driven it. Something is going to come out on that which would of been devastating to Obama had it come out when Romney brought it up in the debate.
  • Nov 12 2012: Yes But Huffington Post did well, too.