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Marc Goodman

INTERPOL-International Criminal Police Organization

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What is the greatest security challenge facing humanity today?

What do you see as the most pressing global security challenges of the 21st century? The broad themes are crime, terrorism, warfare and corruption.

Of course security is a theme which transcends many of the biggest issues facing our planet today, including environment change, access to clean water, poverty and disease/pandemic, to name but a few.

In your opinion, what do you view as the greatest security challenge facing mankind?

What steps can we take now to positively impact the greatest number of people from a global security perspective?

How might an innovative emerging technologies, such as artificial intelligence, robotics, nanotech, biology, ubiquitous computing, genomics, synthetic biology, etc help resolve this challenge?

Thanks in advance for your input.

Related Talks:
Topics: better world corruption crime futurism robots security singularity technology terrorism war
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    Adam Sculthorpe

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    Apr 16 2011: One of the greatest security challenges facing humanity today is the lack of independent security research and development capabilities in law enforcement.

    To address future risks to humanity on a global scale we need adequate law enforcement R&D collaboration on a global scale that is not commercially (therefore reactively) biased. This is particularly true for security intelligence systems.

    Law enforcement cannot afford to remain in a "playing catch-up with criminals mode". The stakes are too high when one considers the exponential growth curve and concentration risk associated with our increased adoption and reliance upon online systems.
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    clay blasdel

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    Apr 16 2011: As long as nuclear war can destroy millions of people in one act of insanity, how can it not pose the biggest security challenge for every country? The fallout alone could poison the environment and kill remnant populations for decades if not centuries. Maybe I don't understand the question. Aside from a Yellowstone mega-volcanic cataclysm, what greater
    global security threat could exist?

    • ROBERT MCCARTHY

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      Apr 22 2011: Not to be dissenting but to offer a possible reason. "How can it not [be]..." The likelihood of it happening. Of course that's discounted if one believes that there's a high likelihood.
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    Nikolaos Benias 50+

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    Apr 15 2011: I'd say that securing critical infrastructures and services over the Internet is the greatest security challenge that humanity is already facing today and will be for the next 10 or so years.

    It's beyond doubt that everything nowadays depends on technology and to be more specific on computers.
    Those computer systems need to be interconnected, in order to provide their services either directly or indirectly to people.

    The IRS, SSN, banks, medical records, cctv systems, billings (water, fixed and mobile phones, electricity etc) are all on-line.
    If anyone get's access to such systems, then everybody is a potential victim and could be in danger some time in the future.
    Stuxnet is a very good example of what worms and viruses (hence people) are able to achieve.
    This is just the beginning of a series of cyber warfare operations going on.
    And there are a lot of people who already have illegal access to such systems all over the world.
    Individuals, governments, terrorist or not groups, activists etc.

    Securing all those infrastructures IS the hardest thing to do, since the most safe PC is the one that is locked in a basement room, with no power and no Ethernet connection whatsoever.

  • Valeriy Vislobokov

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    Apr 15 2011: It's hard to gauge, given new, unprecedented dangers that arise over the period of a few years. A lot of people give general answers here because of this, and I will do this as well; however, it is imperative to do some radical brainstorming because tomorrow's greatest danger will be something we would never imagine today; therefore, I'll also add something specific.

    General: people quickly forget the lessons of yesteryear. How many people born today will truly understand the horrors of World War II? Eighty years down the road, a full lifetime after the rapid loss of 75 million lives, will anybody? Similar signs leading to worldwide conflict will be more difficult to appreciate for what they are.

    Specific: a world that finally abandons carbon heavy fuels widely adopts nuclear energy as the next best alternative. While hard to predict at this time, a problem arises from the massive use of fossil fuels with planetary changes (similar to global warming) that cannot be identified with the limited use nuclear energy sees at the moment. [note: I'm a proponent and very well versed in nuclear energy; I still think, however, that it needs to be adopted carefully, analyzed every step of the way for similar problems.]
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    Glen Reese

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    Apr 11 2011: The biggest problem affecting the security of humanity is the growing disconnect between our actions and our awareness of their consequences- for other people and for the environment. When humans lived in small tribes in limited surroundings, there was rapid feedback about the negative consequences of behaviors that were antisocial or deleterious to the immediate environment that supported the tribe's survival. In face-to-face situations, we are adept at reading the emotional reactions of others, and in adjusting our behavior to maintain peace and stability. Without this direct feedback, however, we tend to drift into self- promoting behavior, oblivious to the consequences.

    This shows up clearly in our driving behaviors, where the lack of an obvious face behind the steering wheel leads us into silly displays of road rage at perceived insults. Also in Internet "communications", which rapidly devolve into flame-wars without any body language feedback. We no longer depend on a local environment, and receive our sustenance from far-away farms and oceans; we receive no direct feedbacks about the alarming degradation of these systems. We are a world of small tribes- sensitive to those we have facetime with, but with little feeling or compassion for faceless others who get lumped into categories such as Liberals, or Muslims, or CEO's, or illegal immigrants, and etc.

    If technology could put more of a human face on the consequences of our actions, to replace the feedback systems that we have evolved to respond to, then we might be able to identify, agree upon, and support solutions to problems that threaten us more than most are willing to believe.

  • Jan Wristen

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    Apr 10 2011: Fear. These days, fear has become a moral imperative, as if decisions taken from any other perspective must be inherently faulty. Today is lost in a miasm of terror about imagined futures. That is the current tragedy. Loss of today's compassion, humanity, love; loss of the only moment we can really affect - now - all due to fears about what could happen.

    This is not to say that prudence is useless, but that the greatest problem is what's guiding our actions; fear or love.
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      Tim Colgan 50+

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      Apr 11 2011: Agree. Fear is the primary tool of the politicians. Whether it is Al Gore volunteering to lead us in the battle against global warming, or Richard Nixon protecting us against the Communists, politicians gain power via fear-mongering.
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    Luuk van Egeraat

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    Apr 10 2011: I think the stereotypical "Terrorist" concept is a major "security problem" for everyone living outside of the USA.
    Or some massive earthquake.
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    Erik Richardson 500+

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    Apr 10 2011: The lack of security training for teachers and principals in our schools. How long until terrorists step into the hallways where our children study or onto the playgrounds? If we think a few Columbine or UVA scenarios are scary, wait until trained paramilitary personnel come into the equation. This is the kind of thing that keeps me up at night.
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    clay blasdel

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    Apr 9 2011: It's the same security threat as in the past, a nuclear bomb, in any manifestation, of course. A single terrorist bomb, an exchange between countries, a tactical warhead detonated on a battlefield, etc. The threat that would keep me awake at night is a stolen (or handmade) suitcase nuke that could be detonated anywhere in the world via cellphone. A full sized nuclear bomb, which is about the size of a refrigerator can be delivered to any place in any city via shipping container in a truck, then exploded.

    There will be no fingerprints, no way to trace the perpetrators. Millions could easily die in one coordinated attack. I can't think of any threat that compares.
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    Ziona Etzion

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    Apr 9 2011: The biggest security threat is personal Individual and human rights.
    That we are fooled to believe that the people that run things for us have our interests at heart.
    The systems are corrupt giving Unlimited power to a few individuals starting from the Federal reserve and
    the way "Democratic" Elections occur to the Big Pharmaceutical companies having so much sway in the Governments.
    Money is power and money is controlled, people are being put into debt by their governing "rulers' who have no
    shame.

  • Ansie du Toit

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    Apr 9 2011: Technology, environmental issues etc, all are important. But the greatest threat is very simple, it is the falling apart of family structures.

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    • Martin Young

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      Apr 11 2011: agree

    • Valeriy Vislobokov

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      Apr 15 2011: Can you be more specific?

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          Erik Richardson 500+

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          Apr 17 2011: I disagree with your claim about Kant, though you may be right in the spin Hegel puts on the whole thing. Kant was hardly a moral relativist, as you seem to have painted him here. Rather, he believed that while we could not draw conclusions about the nature of the world beyond our filtering, we could draw a number of objective conclusions based on the structural form of thinking itself.

          I disagree on a deeper level with your explicit claim that we hear relativism on all sides, as there are any number of holy-scripture-quoting people perfectly willing to impose their version of absolute truth on us all. There are thousands of years worth of history to illustrate that those are similarly unrealistic solutions.

          The real question comes when we ask, then, according to the criteria you've set up, what would count as a "realistic" philosophy?

  • Bubba B.

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    Apr 9 2011: Security is only an idea, an illusion, a concept. Nothing is secure.

    Having said that:
    -The consumer/consumption based economic system must be killed off. It leads to the current state of parasitism that is killing us and our planet. It causes monopolists to become empowered by their greed, encourages a type of psychopathic behaviour towards others and our home.
    -Religions and their differences, their pushing of bigotry, prejudice, persecution, war and the generation of irrational "fairy-tale" thinking.
    -Our tendency to rely increasingly upon technologies that are unnecessary and even dehumanizing.
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    Tim blackburn 30+

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    Apr 8 2011: bio-terrorism.
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    Chris Harries

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    Apr 8 2011: A triumvirate of three interlocking problems.

    1. Oil depletion, closely coupled to 2. the precarious global financial bubble, and both of those problems being exacerbated by 3. climate change.

    Caught in a pincer by these three challenges is food, and this will manifest as the major breakdown symptom. Already is. Food insecurity will be the major cause of social and political unrest in coming decades.

    Too many well meaning folk are dealing with these challenges as single problems rather than systemically.

    Avoiding partial collapse of society that these challenges will precipitate is no longer possible, but we can do a great deal to bring about an emergent culture that is far more sane and enjoyable and sustainable.
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    B. Reynolds

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    Apr 8 2011: Addressing the original post-

    The emergence of non-state geographies.

    Statistically it is extremely likely that within the next hundred years there will be a substantial change to the world's maps due to the effects of a rising sea level caused by climate change. From this point there will be literally hundreds of millions of displaced persons who have no choice but to overcrowd already populated areas. I think it is a reasonable assumption that this forced migration of the poorest individuals will hurt emerging economies and create substantial strife and security challenges for second and third world countries. A lack of central (or in some cases any) governmental control of an area will provide a fertile ground for everything from the growth of terrorism to corporate abuse.

    The 20th century was characterized by a fracturing of nation states from larger semi-homoginous nation states. That trend resulted in the rise of conflicts that spawn genocide. The 21st century will see that trend worsen by the emergence of ungoverned and ungovernable areas that do the same.
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    Chandrakanth Natekar

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    Apr 8 2011: It is even possible to create an earthquake, tsunami and other disasters

    Government terrorists can create earthquakes GOVERNMENT TRANSCRIPT IN INFO

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x_ZlGLccC9E&feature=channel_video_title

    READ THIS - U.S. Department of Defense Bill Clinton Secretary of Defense William S. Cohen TRANSCRIPT-
    http://www.defense.gov/Transcripts/Transcript.aspx?TranscriptID=674

    Q: Let me ask you specifically about last week's scare here in Washington, and what we might have learned from how prepared we are to deal with that (inaudible), at B'nai Brith.

    A: Well, it points out the nature of the threat. It turned out to be a false threat under the circumstances. But as we've learned in the intelligence community, we had something called -- and we have James Woolsey here to perhaps even address this question about phantom moles. The mere fear that there is a mole within an agency can set off a chain reaction and a hunt for that particular mole which can paralyze the agency for weeks and months and years even, in a search. The same thing is true about just the false scare of a threat of using some kind of a chemical weapon or a biological one. There are some reports, for example, that some countries have been trying to construct something like an Ebola Virus, and that would be a very dangerous phenomenon, to say the least. Alvin Toeffler has written about this in terms of some scientists in their laboratories trying to devise certain types of pathogens that would be ethnic specific so that they could just eliminate certain ethnic groups and races; and others are designing some sort of engineering, some sort of insects that can destroy specific crops. Others are engaging even in an eco- type of terrorism whereby they can alter the climate, set off earthquakes, volcanoes remotely through the use of electromagnetic waves.

    So there are plenty of ingenious minds out there that are at work finding ways in which they can wreak terror upon other nations. It's real,
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    Jeffrey Danese

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    Apr 7 2011: Few people seem very concerned about the potential negative impact of post-singularity information processing on human flourishing. But I emphatically am! At the extreme end of unlikelihood is the sci-fi specter of artificial intelligence that sees us as destructive viruses (The Matrix, Battlestar Galactica) at worst or as a herd of necessary organic workers or specimens to be managed (and culled perhaps like in Herbert's Dune Books). The issue of sentience usually obscures the more important issue of agency, purpose, and complexity because while philosophers struggle to imagine how a program might be sentient LIKE WE ARE - they miss the point that artificial intelligence will not be LIKE US at all. Evolutionary history of life on earth does not suggest by any means that those species at the top of the food chain are charitable or even sympathetic to those "beneath" them - in fact, it suggests the opposite: domination and an ethic of utility. Nor can we expect to retain much direct control, for at the more likely end of the range of possibilities is an ever-increasing dependency on automated systems and those who tend them. Sure some people will reap great benefits from the profits, enhanced living standards, longer life, implants, nonobots, etc - but again, history suggests that those people will NOT be the majority. As David Noble noted in his book, The Religion of Technology, going all the way back to the monastic innovations of the 13th century and on through the Calvinist-Puritan conceit that to study nature was a holy obligation to discover God's laws, to participate in the Great Work - the post-millennial return of Jesus - the sacred arts or techne was never meant to benefit EVERYONE - only the elect. I see the effects of technology on my students every day, and yet, the singularity is always presented as a fait accompli. Nothing to do about it. It is inevitable. But has technology really triumphed over culture?? I for one would not vote for it.
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    E G 10+

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    Apr 3 2011: the wish for a global peace in my opinion is the greatest challenge to our global security.............all what's bad start from here
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    Erik Richardson 500+

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    TEDx Organizer
    Apr 2 2011: I'd like to turn the question back to you, Marc, by asking: what should we be teaching students in computer classes K-12 to help prepare them for defending against the challenges of the tech-integrated world they are inheriting?
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    AbdelRahman Siddig

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    Mar 29 2011: What is the greatest security challenge?
    The greatest security challenge is man intention to utilize other people resources for his own benefit without paying the price to the resource owner
    this is done every day by individuals and by powerful country like USA went to Iraq for OIL
    if every one committed not to take other resources without pay the price then every one will feel safe

  • Mohammad Issa

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    Mar 28 2011: I think the most pressing challenge the world is facing is the policy of marketing that the capitalism is leading .This policy has given people everything they need ,but has killed the feeling of being humans inside us .People have become interested in benefiting from anything regardless of some teachings that religion ,humanity or other moral references encourage us to follow .

  • Grant Novak

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    Mar 28 2011: I think in the long term the greatest threat to global security will be dependance on resources, namely unsustainable ones like (and I know this is cliche but maybe it has to be) hydrocarbon fuels. The more a resource becomes in demand the more dangerous a threat it becomes to the world. Third world exploitation is about resources, and it has been this way since imperialist times. First world countries have grown so dependent on our wasteful ways that we have to exploit more and more just to keep our economies running. Eventually something has to give and the power vacuum caused by control over high-demand and non-sustainable resources will cause a global crisis.
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    Cere Davis

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    Mar 28 2011: The greatest threats to our security as a global society, I believe, stem from issues related to natural resource limitations, distribution and allocation. I might also say that bad governance is to blame but I suspect that the corruption of governance also stems from conflicts that arise due to resource contention. How we tackle those problems more specifically??... is an entirely different question - whose answer would require greater thought and research.

  • Benjamin Grosof

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    Mar 28 2011: High-tech political oppression that could last centuries once established. Internet surveillance, miniaturized/airborne robotics, targeted biological agents, and conscienceless cross-national organizations or software will create a real opportunity within the next several decades for a determined technologized tiny minority to control majorities of others. We need to be thinking how to put safeguards in place. I am a research technologist, an expert and enthusiast in artificial intelligence and web. But I think most people are not aware of the range of bad outcomes where our technological trends can take us to.
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    Manuel T. Ortega

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    Mar 28 2011: Policy that does not take into account, as of current knowledge, earth's finite resources, and in human life span terms, earth's ability to regenerate itself. The current generations will be long gone before the disastrous outcome of much of today's lazy, ideological policies will wreak havoc upon humankind. Sad, maddening.

  • Harris Joseph

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    Mar 27 2011: The libya crysis is the biggest securitty that faces all humanity
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