- Lillian Bogonko
- Nairobi
- Kenya
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Will Africa's growth be stunted with China's economic growth slowing down?
A lot has been said about Africa being the next boom market and how many countries and individuals are scrambling for an opportunity to invest in the continent. Their is however a report out by S $ P that this may not necessarily be true.
Please review the attched link and let me know what you think about the article and the arguments articulated.
http://t.co/Uzq0uHH8
Miguel PEZ
Everything can only grow so far. Everything has a limit. Africa, Asia, Europe, USA.... not matter where.
We are reaching critical growth limit at a planetary level.
Most will realise this only when is too late.
Dirk Gielen
I have not read the article, I'lm tired.
You should sheck CAI: www.consultanceyafrica.com
They are a study firm what you can subscribe to their newslettre, and they work on personal demands for knowledge and studies also.
Very intreaging 'humanitarian' engaged they are so it seems from their newslettres I recieve since months now.
Dominik Nikelski
Feyisayo, good point. Visionary leaders needed for Africa!
Where they are now?!
Lars Mews
A place without existing markets can't become a boom market. Africa, due to great lack of ambition, together with harmfull financial interventions from outside on the almost non existing african political systems, has no national markets. They do have of course national trade, but mostly run by imports from outside, even the basical economy like agriculture are so much down and dependent on imports almost only.
Africa should know that it will not be able to protect the mineral deposits, so the only way out of the mess is to establish an economy based on the idea none of these deposits exists. Africa is neither united, nor has it the intelligence, nor the military power to become a big number. But they can at least become a number insofar that they concentrate on building a peaceful continent, what is the elementary need to build up a running economy and development of the state.
None big player became a big player as long as they did not end civil wars and conflicts with close-by neighbor states. This must happen first, it will not work the other way round that you get money and anyone gets peacefull. There have been billions over billions spent on africa and it only went worse, because inside nothing really changed. And you hear Africans only say "if...then...but...", but you do not see anyone do something, just talk and daydreaming, and complaints.
If the people there don't make a change, only dream about it, they will not get out of this mess. From zero to top is not working and will not happen. That takes decades. I strongly believe Africa can make a change to the better, but only on its own.
Ehis Odijie 10+
In Mali, more than three million people – a third of the population – depend on cotton to survive, while the United States has 25,000 cotton farmers. World Bank and other funding organisations pressurised the government of Mali to withdraw any kind of technical/material support to farmers, as this distorts the true price of cotton. The U.S. cotton farmers are paid approximately as much from government subsidies as they earn from the total value of their harvest. In the 2001/2002 period, the value of U.S. cotton production amounted to $3 billion at world market prices with subsidies of $3.9b in the same year. The United States exports half of the cotton it produces, so that America’s export prices have a great influence on the world price of cotton.
Several studies have attempted to describe the effect of US cotton subsidies on African cotton producers. One study by the Fair-trade suggests that cotton subsidies from the U.S. are costing Mali, Benin, Burkina Faso and Chad) £155m a year. Another study by Oxfam estimates the lost income for West Africa cotton producers as $191m (£118m) each year, while sub-Saharan cotton exporters lost $302m as a direct consequence of US cotton subsidies. The Oxfam study further reports that Mali lost 8 per cent of its export earnings yearly, which amounts to an annual $43m loss to local cotton farmers as a result of U.S. cotton subsidies. Similarly, due to US subsidies, Burkina Faso sustains a yearly loss of $28m; Benin $33m; Cameroon $21m; the Central African Republic $2m; Chad $16m; Côte d’Ivoire $32m; and Togo $16m. The list goes on to include all of the 32 cotton-producing countries in Africa, comprising roughly 27 to 30 million cotton producer
Lars Mews
The use of subsidies is legitimate i think, why should a nation put other people over their own? And, Africa uses "subsidies" for inner conflicts, instead of for development. The money Africa spents on wars is comparable to that what other nations put in the development of their states, not in quantity, but in quality, so to say.
I think that it is still the shooter who is responsible for the gunshot, not the one who might pay him or the one who builds the gun.
And the civil wars and such, that is just the top of mountain, below there are lots of structure problems that have nothing to deal with foreign interventions. You can't blame the times of colonisation, that happened to many nations during history, but it is interesting that Africa is still without a progress. There is no conspiracy in the world to hold Africa down, Africa does that pretty much alone.
The problem is history related, but not in the aspect of interventions from outside, but in the culture inside. Africa is still very much attached to his cultural roots, whilest other nations with comparable history did changes in cultural aspects, in self-understanding and such. It is not visible yet that Africas citizens want to give up cultural aspects for the benefit of development.
Thats why it is strongly needed that Africa unites inside, not to fight the foreigners, but to establish a society that is future orientated. If there is no civil conflict, foreign governments could not sent their hidden soldiers, as western societies would not tolerate it.
Ehis Odijie 10+
To turn to your second point, it is simply not the case that civil war is the problem of development in Africa. That's a myth.Nigeria civil war ended in 1970 - Ghana never tasted a civil war. The conflict thesis is nonsense.
The problem i see is that Sub-Sahara Africa countries are not allowed to go through the mandatory passage point needed for development. All advanced countries went through a learning period which is technically impossible now due to world bank, IMF and WTO. I promise you that these are not empty words.
maryline NZ
Ehis Odijie 10+
I can give you a page full of CIA assassination in Africa . . they killed the real leaders and install clowns as "leaders"
pat gilbert 100+
Ehis Odijie 10+
Ehis Odijie 10+
Lars Mews
About the civil war thesis, a continent is always influenced by war situations. And inside the continent there are ongoing conflicts, and these do affect also the states which have peace. Look at the situation in europe, there have been smaller and bigger wars, but since they stopped this, changes began. As long as there have been conflicts on the continent, progress was slow.
Ghana is sourrounded by states with ongoing conflicts. How do you want to establish a working economy under these circumstances? You have to take actions to protect yourself that these conflicts don't swap over to your country, you can not trade like you need to, people will not likely invest in your country because situation is unpredictable and so on.
These conflicts can not be installed nor solved by foreign governments, they just can use them in their interest.
Take IMF, WTO, foreign governments hidden actions away-do you really think that this will make a change? Every country has to deal with these problems, not just africa.
Ehis Odijie 10+
I will turn to a bigger point though. .There has never been any sort of economic growth in most Africa countries since the 1980s. . I don’t know what you mean by growth Lillian but it is often tied to commodity. . My country expanded 6.2 percent in the first quarter of 2012 and it is entirely on revenue from Oil.
Most Nations in Sub-Saharan Africa countries are still under colonial system - even in a strict traditional sense. Colonial official has been replaced with IMF and World bank . . plus WTO. They have been dictating the policies since the opening of 1980s. If you study the economic calendar of any Africa country that received independence in the 60s, like i have done, you’d realize that there was real growth in the late 60s and 70s but seized in the beginning of 80s. Coincidentally this was the period that Washington institutions took over the affairs of the so-called third world. We have been duped.. . . . IMF and World Bank are the creators of our woes.
Also, Asia giants did not take advice from the evil IMF and World Bank. .
pat gilbert 100+
David Hamilton 50+
That said however... The important thing is "How were you duped?"... Africa trusted and had faith, in European currency, which is virtually worthless. Africa also trusted and had faith in American currency, which used to be pretty stable, but is now virtually worthless as well. Next China came in and convince Africa that their currency was worth money...
Why is it that no one is coming to Africa suggesting that African currency is worth money? Why is no one mentioning the fact that in a world of bullshit currency, Africa should have a much higher exchange rate than it curently enjoys? Why aren't any African leaders saying "stop accepting western currency, ours is more valuable, those people are idiots"?
Frans Kellner 100+
The majority which is poor can only benefit by this situation.
For what I've seen, Chinese activity in Africa is rather evasive. They put Africans out of business with competitive strategies, they buy the best pieces for little and keep the know how to themselves. They built infrastructure for their own efficiency.
Most African leaders rule the same way their colonial predecessors did, only serving their private interests and every foreign nation or company can plunder at their hearts content as long as they keep the leaders happy.
David Hamilton 50+
You know me though, I think Africa will do very well by concentrating the sun if they stick to local growth, local infrastructure, and local investment... So, I'm always going to have a slanted perspective on this issue.
pat gilbert 100+
For example tech companies go to silicon valley to get their tech products going, this despite higher costs in silicon valley, because the talent for this sort of thing is in silicon valley. Southern Calif always has been one of the top producers of aeronautic parts for the same reason despite higher cost here.
David Hamilton 50+
"It has nothing to do with wages"... Really? If I were trying to turn a profit, and there was a place where I could legally pay people less... I'd take advantage of it, as often as possible, until transportation costs ate up the profit.
pat gilbert 100+
One worker with a backhoe can out produce say 100 workers with shovels at .5 per hour $ .5 x 100 = 50 one back hoe and operator might be $40.00 per hour or a cnc operator that is not available in the other country or people who are very good at writing code where one good code writer might produce what 3 code writers might be able to produce in another country.
David Hamilton 50+
I agree with you on skilled labor. I am talking about entry level, unskilled, also known as "family starting" labor. Both economies exist, one for skilled, one for "unload the machine, and put stickers on the boxes". You seem to ignore the fact that some labor is always unskilled, and some laborers, are barely capable of unskilled labor. Some don't desire more than subsistence.
Americans with an 80 IQ need jobs, just like Chinese people with an 80 IQ need jobs, in that market, the cheapest place with a rule of law... wins. So you need incentives in both markets... what used to be known as a working or middle class, not constantly spiralling into debt.
pat gilbert 100+
But the fact is that anyone in the U.S. that wants to do better can do better.
The real problem is the nanny state that indoctrinates people into handouts while punishing those who do produce.
David Hamilton 50+
pat gilbert 100+
Oh come to think of it you appear to be getting eaten by the government already and don't even realize it.
David Hamilton 50+
I shouldn't have made a personal comment though... that was childish, and stupid. I was hoping it would bring out the "I've got a gun" defense to which I could respond "guns don't farm, how good a hunter are you?".
That's the only problem I have with neocons, and pure randian conservatives... You're all going to get old, and weak... Just like I am. Community, is designed to force the young, strong, and often dumb, to provide sustenance for the old and weak, so that we can continue to gain from their knowledge and wisdom. That wisdom is valuable... but, so is the strong back and weak mind. We need them as much as they need us.
pat gilbert 100+
David Hamilton 50+
I am free to do anything, but engage in a life of luxury. If I wanted to do that I could. All of America's institutions are open wide to people like myself... In fact, I would suggest that I have sequestered my talent and skills outside their reach, while maintaining an enjoyable life. My government and community have suffered for my life of mediocrity, but I have not, I got to enjoy every bit of it, because i've never murdered anyone... I consider that a win. They can't say that.
pat gilbert 100+
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zc7oZ9yWqO4
David Hamilton 50+
"I'd rather be a day laborer."
Those parts she got right... That is why I think your contribution to this collectivist society... is a cop out. My work belongs to no one, but myself. My labor fed me, and paid for interesting travels when saved. I refuse to cross the threshold into which government feels it has a right to steal my labor at the point of a gun, and use it to murder people... I, unlike many so called individualists... am on strike... and it's quite a bit of fun... I get to write nonsense like this all the time.
pat gilbert 100+
David Hamilton 50+
Ken brown 30+
Feyisayo Anjorin 50+
African nations remain poor because there is always an expectation that some super-nation will solve their numerous problems.
No nation can be great without visionary leaders, transparent and efficient systems, and hardworking citizens.