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How can we sustain infinite growth on a finite planet?
Human population growth is a serious problem that is growing by ridiculous geometric progression. Everyday approximately 200,000 people die, and in contrast 450,000 are born. That is a staggering 250,000 new mouths to feed everyday! We cannot support infinite growth on a finite planet! We're running out of land. Thousands of square miles of rain forest are gutted every year for palm plantations to produce palm oil so that masses can be sustained. Fresh water supplies are in limited quantities. Polution and contamination abound. Why do people ignore the realities of where we're headed? It frightens the crap outta me. It appears as though the discovery of oil is when things really took off. Oil ultimately led to the internal combustion engine so that huge amounts of land could be cultivated. Pesticides and fertilizers were also made possible via oil to enhance production yields. As well as affecting the pharmeceutical industry to produce vaccines. It's not natures way.
Check out this human population growth chart: http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://worldhistoryforusall.sdsu.edu/images/Popn_Graph2.jpg&imgrefurl=http://worldhistoryforusall.sdsu.edu/themes/keytheme1.htm&h=324&w=524&sz=49&tbnid=YSJSr0mYU4gonM:&tbnh=77&tbnw=124&zoom=1&usg=__kIp3FdU9ydMckYq62HCWmiEmqXc=&hl=en&sa=X&ei=2nk9UOvmL8vsigKdhIGwDg&ved=0CCUQ9QEwAQ&dur=655
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Mitch SMith 50+
It is a question that is gaining traction these days.
Those who say "find another planet" ignore what non-linear growth does.
At 3.5% growth, by the time we fill this planet, it will take us 20 years to fill another planet, then another 20 years to fill 2 more planets, then another 20 years to fill 4 etc - such that at a certain point, we will be looking for new galaxies to fill.
But let's not kid ourselves - we won't be filling other planets any time soon.
Some say that the population will "level-off" at around 9 billion in 20 years or so. But as an ex forecasting analyst, I can say that it's a brave person who believes any forcast beyond 3 months.
The problem will compound whilever humanity persists in closing off from the open system of the universe.
If we are to believe the archeology, our logrihtmic growth was initiated by farming about 10,000 years ago.
The recent correlation with fossil fuel use is entirely consistent with the curve - it is corrollary, not causal.
"Burnout" happens when exponential growth becomes a vertical singularity. Exponenttial growth happens when systems are closed. Farming is a classic example of closing a system.
To avoid burnout, we must look at ways of re-opening the system - even if it is a partial controled re-opening. We must start letting the earth share our crops. IF we don't find this principle as a civillisation, the burnout will re-open the system for us.
Either way, the problem will get fixed.
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Mitch SMith 50+
I think the first thing we should do is stop denying our poo.
Human poo represents one of the exponential problems we face.
By concentrating it, it becomes toxic. If it was given back to the Earth with a measure of reverence it can re-enter the open system.
Why do we deny our poo?
Well - here's a little story:
A baker made a loaf, a human bought the loaf for one coin and ate the loaf.
The loaf was turned into poo which the human saved in a tank.
The baker saved the coin in his bank-account.
The banker loaned the coin to someone else.
A bowyer made a bow, a human bought the bow for one coin and used the bow to catch food for the remainder of his life. The human gave his poo to the ground, the bacteria ate the poo, the grass ate the bacteria and brought the sunlight into the earth, a rabit ate the grass, the human killed the rabit with his bow ...
The bowyer saved his coin in his bank account.
The banker loaned the coin ..
Another bowyer decided to get more coins so he made a bow that could only be used once then broke and turned into poo. ..
The moral of this story is that our bank accounts are, largely, filled with poo - and poo is all that one can borrow. And all that poo is denied from the Earth. The Chain is broken, the poo becomes poison, the sunlight stops entering the earth. All turns to dust leaving only a pile of coins.
Some of those coins do not represent poo. - but how can one tell the difference?
Mitch SMith 50+
Find a tree.
Go to it.
Observe it quietly.
Grab a branch and feel it.
Observe the feeling of it.
Ask it for strength.
edward long 100+
Mitch SMith 50+
I don't take the inadequacy of forecasts to be pessimism.
I can certainly get the service level of a supermarket chain from 77% to 95%.
But that's high-volume consumer goods with statistical sample stability from millions of units per time-bucket agregated through 4 levels of distribution..
Even then, it would be a fool who purchased on any forecast longer then 3 months.
With long order cycles (anything greater than 2 weeks) I always included strong trend damping on increased demand lines. That might have been a bit pessimistic, but it certainly stopped the warehouse being clogged with 6 months national supply of wheet-puffs - specially after we'd reduced the order cycle to a couple of hours - I presume the cocain and hooker were particularly good in that transaction ;)
No, none of this stuff can predict what emergent factors will come into play - or when they will arrise..
The best I could to was to disconnect goods from physical form-fit-function into a demographic-fashion-unit to get some traction on high obsolescence and convergence rates.
THere is simply no unit demand continuity any more - certainly nothing like the 3 years history you need for a stable 3-month projection.
I find tarot cards to be just as useful as computers in this regard.
Will things "fix themselves".
Only if you truly understand the "attractors" at work in the chaotic systems you observe.
If things have a self - they will certainly stabilise, but only in terms of that "self" and it may not be human.
Money and corporations for instance have "selves" and are not at all aligned with anything remotely human.
But humans have selves, and communities have selves. what good is it that technology rids us of fleas only to replace them with robots, or some other parasitic entity?
edward long 100+
Mitch SMith 50+
I have reasons for saying that.
If someone is brave enough to say that the human population on planet Earth will peak at 9billion in 10 to 15 years they are kidding themselves.
In that timespan there is a good chance that something will come from left-field to make it a joke.
optimism/pessimism is not a factor of forecasting. That's the domain of gamblers.
I'd rather see it in terms of:
an asteroid might hit the planet and wipe us all out in a flash, but on the other hand, each new moment of life is unique - sometimes surprisingly so.
Until the asteroid hits - enjoy them moments.
Even between now and when you go to bed are infinite moments.
That's something to be optimistic about ;)
edward long 100+
Mitch SMith 50+
That's a good observation!
Yes, the layman labels these things.
It's a product of the necessary process of "assumption".
Assumption is a kind of "gap-filler" in one's world view.
"One" being the key.
And, I must stress, that all except the statistician who performed the forecast are laymen unless they have also looked at the data and understand the methods used to extract trends. THe statistician also assumes that the trends identified have a critical role in the decisions of the intended audience of the forecast - and that, that audience has the skills to interpret the trend.
This is the danger of statistics and the practice of forecasting.
Take, for instance, the statistical analysis of citibank (given to us by Lindsay in this thread):
http://canadianclimateaction.files.wordpress.com/2010/08/citigroup-oct-16-2005-plutonomy-report-part-1.pdf
In this analysis the statisticians are analysing wealth disparity by national demographic. It indicates a trend towards greater wealth disparities in plutocratic nations. The intended audience are equities traders.
THe trends revealed show that equities are a good investment based on the assumption that they are currently under-valued due to risk factors being over-estimated. THey assert that risk factors are being over-estimated due to a failure to distinguish the difference between plutocratic and non-plutocratic nations. They also indicate that investment in toys for the rich 1% is a good idea because the rich dominate more than half the market in plutocracies.
For the intended audience (equities traders), this might be a basis for optimism, but for those who are not equities traders or part of the rich 1% this is grounds for intense pessimism.
However, they assert that the trend is stable for the next few years. I dispute that. I dispute it on the grounds that:
1. many of their trends show exponential growth. Exponential growth lines lead to burnout.
2. it is growth based - for humans only. (contd)
Mitch SMith 50+
If you were the trader taking on-board this analysis, your expertise would assist you in making any decision based on it. I would presume that no trader in his right mind would commit to anything beyond 3-months based on this analysis.
WHat we don't see in this analysis is the publications that preceded and follow it. It is taken in an isolation that is spurious.
Forecasts are a moving-feast - one does them continually and as you go you improve the quality of the forecast by comaparing older forecasts to what actually happens.
Forecasts cannot predict emergent factors - they can only adapt to them after they emerge.
I am not optimistic that things will "fix themselves" I am certain that things that have a "self" will survive until they are killed by something that disrupts that "self".
W. Ying 10+
Human's accuracy is too high to immigrate into space.
We have to stay on the earth and quit SILLY invalid happiness and be happy validly for 100 centuries more!
Mitch SMith 50+
repeat.
All between senses and motion is metaspace. It is resonant/adaptive topology
Happines resides in metaspace - to persue it is to chase ghosts.
Well being is to change energy in order to persist.
Potential agency - this is a thing that Americans call "freedom" but have no idea what they are talking about.