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Can we look at the past when looking for future solutions to modern problems?
I read a book called "The Black Swan" by Nassim Taleb which proposes the idea that the world is incredibly unpredictable. These "Black Swan" events control integral moments in the history of our species; whether that be a stock market crash or 9/11. In hindsight we may see a trend, but at any given moment the future of a new black swan event is impossible to predict. I am wondering that if this is the case, can we still look into the past to find solutions to problems. I did an analysis of Israel while looking for a solution to the Arab-Israeli Conflict and found an interesting economic trend when compared to cooperation. (If you would like to read my study visit http://luxperci.com/solution-arab-israeli-conflict/ ) Is this a fair assumption?
Efrain Torres
The problem is that on modern days the world share a common destiny.
Vamshi Krishna Beeravelly
Jake Maddox
Gail . 50+
You suggest taking people who have been turned into enemies and forcing them to share a government, AND you are suggesting a national bank that represents the fundamental breach that causes today's distress. That's what the Versailles Treaty that started this whole mess did. It was all about money and power.
Mitch Skiles
Gail . 50+
The Versailles Treaty is the single, underlying reason for the rise of Hitler. It placed such severe sanctions on the German people that the German economy was destroyed. Inflation was so severe that it took a wheelbarrow of money to buy a single loaf of bread. Starvation and homeless was so great (in a land with harsh winters) that it was not uncomon to get up in the morning to find another corpse on the doorstep. The best of the farm lands were given to France. Denmark took its share as well. New national borders were artificially created in the middle east - bringing incompatible groups together (Sunis and Shias for example).
If you take a group of people and do that to them, at some point, you can be assured that a leader will rise and put an end to the horrors. Hitler was Germany's choice. Iran and Iraq had theirs.
Antisemitism was GREAT throughout Europe. What's the name of the boat that traveled the world asking for asylum for the Jews on it? It was sent back to Germany where the military met the Jews at the docks.
When the war ended, rather than giving Germany to the Jews, Europe didn't want Jews on their own doorstep, so they were encouraged to go to Palestine.
England had promised to cede control of "Palestine" to the "Palestinians" if they joined England in its war against the Turks. For the 1400 years or so before that, the Jewish and Arab inhabitants lived mostly in peace with one another. Their religions and values were so much in common that there wasn't much to fight about. England reneged out of a desire to rid themselves of Jews. Sunis and Shias were not at war with selves or Jews.
Now compare the core problems with the Versailles Treaty ($$$$$$$ - greed & thievery & hate) with what is happening in the Middle East, and it's obvious that we have learned nothing, because we let emotions get in the way of truth.
Feyisayo Anjorin 50+
Gadgets and technology may change; but human nature will remain the same(just as fishes will always live in water).
Considering the human factor, there is basically nothing new, and there is a lot to know by looking into the past. When the human aspect is right, then there is no problem.
Art Suneel
Mats Kaarbö 10+
Barry Palmer 50+
A few months ago I read about a small corporation that used cell phones with GPS and tablet computers to run their business. The business had no central location. The address for tax purposes was the office of its accounting firm. The mail address was a PO Box. When they, rarely, needed a meeting space they rented it for an hour or two. The description of how the business used technology, with both off-the-shelf and custom applications, was unlike anything I had ever encountered.
It would be easy to dismiss this as just a technological advance. But it goes beyond just the technology. These people were thinking very differently from the way I learned to solve problems. They completely ignored all past concepts about organizing a business and started from scratch. The relationships between the people are not hierarchical. They were completely open to change, the only criteria was to do what works today. Any businesses trying to compete with these people had better be extremely adaptable. It made me wonder how much of the MBA curricula in our universities is still applicable.
I was designing business systems just ten years ago. I realized that everything I knew about business systems was obsolete. And so are the business systems of many of our big corporations. This is a rate of change that is new in history.
I read about another group of people that completely rebuild their business every six months. This has nothing to do with technology and has much to do with the changing values of society, as in marketing.
The rate of change is accelerating. Some people are adapting to this fact, and it seems that part of that adaptation is the willingness to discard the past along with its lessons. I have no doubt that discarding the lessons of the past will involve a cost, but these people seem to be thinking that the benefits outweigh the cost.
Colleen Steen 500+
This sounds GREAT from a business stand point. Do you think the same would apply (discarding the past along with its lessons) when dealing with human relations, violation of human rights, etc.?
I believe we are intelligent enough to choose what lessons we want to discard or not, and I think/feel we need to find the balance.
Barry Palmer 50+
I am not sure that these people are taking the right path, long term. The first business I described said that so far most of their meetings were for celebrations, so they are enjoying success so far.
I am not really trying to make a case here, just trying to explain why I very much fear this accelerating pace of change. We are creating a culture in which adaptability will be extremely highly valued, and traditional concepts of knowledge (lessons learned) may be obsolete. Animals, and especially humans, are not built to function that way. We try something and if it produces good results, we try it again; if it produces bad results we will not try it again. This is the way we are built, and it may not work in an environment where the time scale for this cycle is approaching zero.
I have read about the hookup culture in our colleges, and I think that is another aspect of this. Young people are free to explore sex without fear of pregnancy, and with condoms, little fear of disease. And explore they do, causing themselves a great deal of confusion and emotional trauma. They desperately need guidance, but our old ideas do not work
I never would have believed that the USA would condone torture, but it has. I think part of the reason is that our leaders thought the old ideas did not fit the modern world. I think they were wrong, but many of them still believe they made the right choice, justified by their observations that the current world has little similarity to the past.
Maybe my fears are just a reflection of growing older. But it seems that we are building a culture that is not suitable for humans. If so, some kind of crash is the usual result.
Colleen Steen 500+
I honestly do not think/feel that lessons learned will ever be obsolete. Nobody can erase the information we have, and I believe it will always be relevant. I DO agree that we are moving at a fast paced change, and adaptability is, and will be valuable.
As evolving humans, the thinking process is expanding all the time, and the exploration of life still requires trial and error. However, I believe our trial and error may be getting more advanced, so it is exactly as you say....we need to adjust and adapt maybe faster than we have in the past?
Perhaps it is as you say....we are building a culture not suitable....
However, it is humans who are creating it, so you are saying that we may be destroying ourselves? Crashing? I don't honestly think so, but there are no guarentees in life, and that I am pretty sure of....fortunately, or unfortunately, depending on one's perception:>)
Debra Smith 200+
edward long 100+
Barry Palmer 50+
I actually agree with you. Unfortunately, my logic seems to be telling me that we are approaching a point in history in which lunacy is the effective approach to progress. I comfort myself with the thought that I am probably wrong.
edward long 100+
Barry Palmer 50+
I am not well read in this area, so please understand that I am posing these ideas from the very humble position of a student hoping to find answers.
It seems to me that modern western civilization might be developing a trap for itself.
The success of the human species, especially since the invention of the printing press, has largely been due to our ability to pass knowledge to the next generation. We are succeeding so well that the pace of change is accelerating exponentially.
This pace of change might soon be pushing the limits of human adaptability.
I fear that when the key to survival depends on rapid adaptability to new situations, then the lessons passed down from the older generations could be fatal. We might be approaching something like a tipping point, when relying on what is still our best source of solutions could prove to be exactly the wrong thing to do. Should we be looking for this point and be prepared to radically change our methods?
george lockwood 20+
walter crockett
Robert Winner 50+
The second major point I would like to present: History is written by the victor and from the political standpoint that was prevelent at the time.
Caution should be taken as much of History is being revisited and some re-written that disregard documents that are available written at the time of the event. History revisionists present a danger to basing any model on revised history.
We often use apples to oranges when a apples to apples requirement exists.
What is in place today that was not available to the historical event. What is the impact. What are the advantages / dis-advantages. Probabilities of success.
Yep, I include the past in planning for the future but I try to be sure I am using apples to apples and the whole picture of the past model and the current projected model when measuring the probalities of success.
P.S. I like LuxPerci and the arguments presented there.
All the best. Bob.
Mitch Skiles
Also thanks for the compliment on my site! I presented more of my views on this topic in another article if you or anyone else is interested: http://luxperci.com/certainly-uncertain/
Robert Winner 50+
There is always someone who wants to shove 10 pounds of stuff into the five pound bag.
When I was in charge I had a simple trick that served me well. I compose a letter / answer etc .... and put in in my left hand drawer. I pulled it out again the next day and if it still met the needs, made sense, etc ... I posted it. I did this because many time new info, poor wording, bad composure, or events that overcome the issue became evident and I wished I had waited. This practice resolved that problem. I was no wiser but looked dumb less often. They were still my errors if they happened but I owned them and made every effort to make a informed decision based on information at hand.
All the best. Bob.
Mitch Skiles
Debra Smith 200+
Robert Winner 50+
Debra Smith 200+
Thank you.
Mitch Skiles
Debra Smith 200+
David Brossman
Mitch Skiles
Barry Palmer 50+
I suppose some people could combine these roles, but I sure hope someone is just trying to give us the truth of our past. We need it, for many purposes.
Debra Smith 200+
Seconded.
Mitch Skiles
your thoughts?
Barry Palmer 50+
-- Headlines must grab attention to sell.
-- Journalists are not historians, and should not try to write as historians write.
-- I do not know the context of her statement, but I strongly suspect that Condoleezza Rice's statement was self serving.
-- Historians enjoy the perspective of distance (through time), can frame events in the context more extensively, and they enjoy the luxury of doing extensive research. Also, historians do not have a daily deadline.
Thats about it. Real profound thoughts will cost you.
Debra Smith 200+
Fritzie Reisner 100+
Did I misunderstand?
Mitch Skiles
na YAN
Princess Viznar
Mitch Skiles
Debra Smith 200+
Chetan Somani
Colleen Steen 500+
Mitch Skiles
Colleen Steen 500+
Life is full of "random factors", is it not? I believe the more information we have as individuals, or as a whole, the better choices we can make for ourselves and the good of humankind.
I think/feel that we create our lives, and it is information that contributes to how we orchestrate our lives....both as individuals and a global community.
What is luck in your perception? Many people tell me I am "lucky" my life is how it is...content....with opportunity and diverse experiences. OH....and by the way, I had cancer, a near fatal head/brain injury, have degenerative disc dis-ease in the spine, and a few other challenges. Lucky? I don't think so. I think I made lemonade with lemons, and we can do that as a global community.
I look at the past for the purpose of learning, and I truly believe it is important to look at the past in the global community for the purpose of learning as well. What causes things to work or not work many times, is the decisions that humans make.
I am not advocating forcing our way through anything with plans from the past. I am suggesting to look carefully at the past, and formulate plans for the present and future that improve conditions in our global community, rather than cause more chaos.
For example, consider slavery, or abuse and violation of human rights in other forms. I venture to say that the majority of people in our world believe that these conditions should not exist? But they do.
If we look at the past for information, we find that one important factor which contributes to abuse and violation of rights is isolation. With the communication systems we now have, it is more difficult to isolate people, and that could be a factor toward changing that challenge.
I say that if we don't know where we've been, we don't know where we are going. I'm not sure if we have any "modern problems". History repeats itself and the problems may manifest in a different form, but based on the same underlying challenges.
Mitch Skiles
Colleen Steen 500+
You ask the billion dollar question...why does it continue to repeat itself? Do I think we are missing something? Not focusing? Lazy? Fail to utilize lessons? Short-sighted? Yes, yes, yes, yes, yes.....yes.
I believe we (humans) are not paying attention. We have been gathering information for many years....when will it be time to act/react? I believe we have begun, and I really think TED is a valuable part of that process....people around the world connecting, sharing ideas with the same or similar focus.
One of my favorite quotes because I believe it to be true:
"One of the great difficulties in the new order of thought is that we are likely to indulge in too much theory and too little practice".
"The Science of Mind" - Ernest Holmes
We have a lot of the information we need to change our world, and now we need to impliment it don't you think? We are not as isolated any more, and when many people get together, sharing the same vision, it is very powerful:>)
Barry Palmer 50+
Sometimes we ignore the past out of Hubris. When the USA was considering war with Iraq someone in the government tried to point out to the bigwigs that historically this was not a good idea. His reply was that we are now smarter than history.
Such folks are hopeless.
Random Chance 30+
Government has failed. It doesn't work and is only intrusive and becoming Fascist. Money has failed. Ooops. It is going to completely fail and soon, or are most thinking this insanity will just go on and on? What kind of lies do you tell yourself? Voting doesn't work. Who do you vote for? Rather, now, who do they allow you to vote for and for what? Most things are passed without your knowledge or consent.
How much longer do people have to look "backward" to see this?
How far back do they have to look before they see a pattern that shows them, "this is no good. It's a lie. It doesn't, oops, it isn't working, still!"
Yet you wish to discuss how to solve problems by allowing those in power, who stand between people and the solution, to go on not solving them!
As the next 10 years pass, fewer and fewer humans will have their problems solved at all.
They will perish because of them, while only a few will benefit and tighten their control so that they don't have to squirm around in the muck that everyone else is in. But, they will continue planning how they are going to solve what is broken, with broken tools, and the same old circular, going-nowhere thinking that is evident in and descriptive of, insane behavior.
You don't have to look back, You already know what should have been done. You already know what doesn't, didn't and won't work. You already can remember the past well enough to repeat it again, and again and again, and again, and again..........................................
Debra Smith 200+
Random Chance 30+
I never said that. That is your take on first admitting the truth, me thinks.
The truth is what is and it means and demands taking action, not giving up.
I believe that is why so many people get angry when the truth is mentioned. They don't want to hear it.
Hearing it means one has to do something. Actually, it makes it easier to find what to do, or rather what each individual can surmise they can do, as we are all different, in different circumstances and in different places, but all in the same boat.
And you assume I am not doing anything without even checking first.
All I said was we continue to repeat what we have proven doesn't work and yet we refuse to let go of what doesn't work in order to keep the mess alive. There is something very wrong there and it is global, collective, mental illness bordering on insanity.
So, at least trying to say, or get people to truly recognize the insane behavior they practice is an attempt to see if it is possible for the global, collective, mentally ill, to have a real moment of sanity.
They are insane! What is wrong with trying to do that?
"it seems to me that helping others in not a major priority of those who hold his viewpoint."
Just who are these people you are referring to and what viewpoint is that?
To me, those in power are perfectly unwilling to do anything that will solve human suffering, inequality, poverty, slavery, and stop their investments in war and death and dying.
So, they have to go. What does it take to accomplish that?
That needs to come first in my opinion. And trying to wake people up is another thing I do.
It is very hard working with people who are asleep and only want to be gently awakened. It is going to be their world, not mine. I won't be around.
Example: To repeat something I've said, that I believe is true rather than what most believe or accept..
Those who forget the past are condemned to repeat it.
You cannot repeat what you cannot remember.
george lockwood 20+
Fritzie Reisner 100+
Mitch Skiles
Debra Smith 200+
here it is:
http://www.ted.com/talks/benoit_mandelbrot_fractals_the_art_of_roughness.html
Fritzie Reisner 100+
We look to build solutions that seem they would have a decent chance of working, but recognize whether they will work is uncertain. In view of the uncertainty, it is often wise to take into account the reversability of the actions we take or to assemble a strategy that allows for midstream adjustments and mid-course corrections.
Mitch Skiles
Debra Smith 200+
Oh, and to the overarchiing question, I think the solutions come from past situations, combined with new ways of conceptualizing the problem but all of the ingredients are like elements, they are already here but they might take a new form as new components from other thinkers take shape.
Fritzie Reisner 100+
My reference to the error in attitude toward experiments in the past was not to your statement but rather to the problem as it was posed in the thread. Just because circumstances have throughout history continuously changed and because circumstances are different in different locations does not mean our history in the successful and unsuccessful application of policies and strategies is irrelevant to other times and places. On the contrary, how things have played out in practice provides essential insights into the conditions in the environment to which the effectiveness of the strategy is sensitive.
Fritzie Reisner 100+
I think what Debra responded is often valid and i would say the more so if one allows also for throwing in a twist that is newly available.
The error would only be in assuming an option robust to past circumstances would necessarily be robust in new circumstances. The same issue arises in a short time frame in trying to to transfer a policy approach to a new location.
Sometimes this consideration is called "external validity." That is, does the policy or policy component likely transfer to the new environment.
Debra Smith 200+
Debra Smith 200+
Fritzie Reisner 100+
Mitch Skiles