- Lillian Bogonko
- Nairobi
- Kenya
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Can China really become a super power, or will it remain a great power among other great powers?
We have read numerous articles and statistics that indicate the rising power that is China. As an emerging economy among the BRICs, China is seen as a leader in the pack and with the number two economy, well placed to replace the US as a world hegemon.
I however wonder how much of a super power if any China can be? John Inkberry has written about the western liberal order and how it has penetrated every inch of our societies and culture. As a result many have found themselves having to preserve their cultures because the western liberal culture is very strong. Inkberry argues that China will have to find it`s influence within this set up, because it will be very hard to alter it (the western liberal order).
Is this the case? Can China become a super power in the current global order or will it have to dispose of it and come up with a different type of order or will it simply become part of the order and influence global events among other powers?
What does the future of China look like in the present western liberal order?
Sebastian Helenius
There is war in the future for China, over fishing rights and energy supply. So is there also war in the future for the USA. The outcome of the future is certainly one to take a shot at.
FT.
Radu Johnson
As far as I am concerned China and Russia are on the wrong side of history , you can not influence the world in the long run if you have social or freedom issues. On a large scale good always prevails.If you are a super military power or super monetary power is not enough , you have to be culturally as well , otherwise the vast majority will always tend to disagree with you. The internet is a very important tool , you can not fool people anymore.
Alexander Sergeev
Sebastian Helenius
I 100 % agree with you, especially when it comes to your comments about culture, and I'm not one to agree all too easily.
Well done.
As for Alexander, yes there is internet censorship but this can be tackled in the long run with new platforms and servers that suit the demands of a global population that is not longer in demand of pornography and online pharmaceutical retail.
big cabbage
As the question that whether China will become the super power in the future. It's really hard to say. In the past 30 years we have surely witnessed the fast development in economy. But as the revolution goes on there must be some structural problems that can't easily solved because it may threaten the regime of the communist party and someone's benefits. As we see recently, China is lowing his pace in economy. Some experts are also predicting that China will continue suffering the pressure of the down-forward trend of economy. Fast but not stable, if China really has the ambition of becoming the first super power on the earth, more revolution or sacrifice will be underwent.
Shane Schuller
Regarding other nations taking on the contracts. It's really not that easy as it sound. There is a bunch of things to be prepared for as a nation supplying the world. Firstly a labour force, then logistics, then a country's infrastructure and so for. It is not impossible but it's not as easy as that. The world's dependency on China is evident. To add, that not all chinese products are of poor quality. Yes you have those of lower quality, as every other nation offers, and you have those that offers a backup service model.
As for the fallacy: are you asserting the world would have no EFFECT without china? and can you say that people will not have an effect if china pulls their network from the world?
Mahabalraj Singh Peshi
I did not state that the world would not be effected by the absence of China. That's absurd. However, The world would not experience a cataclysmic catastrophe either. There are many nations in Asia that have the work force, logistics and infrastructure to handle the industrial workload. So much for "consequences of this industrial superpower" that you so aptly put.
About the Tibetan issue, you are dodging the bullet and avoiding the question i posted in the last reply, namely, What loyalty are you referring too? and why should this affect the peaceful Tibetans and their way of life.
Shane Schuller
Regarding Tibet
I want to clear with you, that I have the utmost respect for the Dalai Lama and his cause, as well as every soul and martyr. They all have my sincerest discerned acknowledgment. Having said that, I am absolutely certain their clamor will reach success soon. Our history proves that small groups grow large and eventually impact enough. We can see how the ottoman empire was disrupted when the Bab and Bahaulla in 1844 apposed their ill leadership. It didn't happen overnight but it impacted eventually. The same with Mandela and Ghandi and their weapons were humility. So I don't doubt this fact at all. There are many soothsayers in the world aiming for peace in wisdom, however its seemingly slow because of apathy amongst the masses. The whole world is in disarray, look at Burma and the genocide. But again it continues because of a simple thing called - loyalty.
To clear the 'loyalty'
I meant that the people who willingly participate and accept in China's regime - they are the loyal one's - to a point that almost nothing deters them. And there is a large amount that are submissive this way, not only china. China leads it's people powerfully and they are a proud nation, just like Americans are patriotic, but with different philosophies. Only once 'loyalty' ends then will people find real freedom.
David Hamilton 50+
The fuel pump that was in there since 1968... Died in like 1993, and then I put in a new fuel pump, and that fuel pump died in 1995, and I went through 3 fuel pumps on that car.
The starter, that was put in by some heavy Michigan hands in 1968 when I was one year old... Some guy with a cigarette danglin' put that starter in, and then went to a beautiful home in Flint, Michigan... Which is now a crack house... and he's been dead for years.
Then finally that starter that he personally tightened every part of, finally just went "I can't do it anymore"... and died in 1994, and I took it out, and it was heavy, and it was beautiful, and it was a piece of art.
Then I put in this thing I got at a parts store, and I asked them "give me the best starter available". They gave me this starter, and it was made of this weird composite metal and you could see coke can pieces in it, and it didn't weigh anything... and it lasted like 6 months and then CLANG! Then it just came apart...
That's progress."
Louis CK
Shane Schuller
Mahabalraj Singh Peshi
by the way, David, any chance you know where the Starter was manufactured?
David Hamilton 50+
Wherever the starter was made now, it is no longer a piece of craftsmanship, that we pay a living wage to produce. Someone now pulls them off a machine and puts them in a box. It's made of the cheapest materials humanly possible.
His home is now a crack house, in a town with something like 40% unemployment. We didn't give whoever is making that starter now, a wage that bought him a home, and that's why it's a piece of junk... in my humble opinion.
Lillian Bogonko
Alain Blanchard
The world continues to globalize and social media and technology are closing the gap between the world and China. If the government believes that it can adapt to changing social conditions than China might have a chance at becoming an even greater super power. Some politicians believe that expelling any negative notions toward the Chinese nation threatens the credibility of the government and will likely lead to an uprising.
Thus the two paths, the rise or fall of China depends on how the government can adapt to the rapidly changing global environment while still maintaining harmony throughout the kingdom.
Roberto Garcia
Shane Schuller
If China were to stop all production or perhaps stop supplying the world - we'd experience the might or consequences of this industrial superpower. How can we even question their world status, considering their history tells us they've been great inventors long before the Europeans, and ancient greeks. It's our perception they only up and coming in this 21st century, because european history led us to believe this.
As far as liberation, the Tibetans have clamored for the freedom of people in china but makes very little impact to date. There seems to be a loyalty, perhaps based on intrinsic fear, that is hard to penetrate. Even if western culture have influence on the world, including china, it simply cannot be imbued further than impersonation. The loyalty in the Chinese culture goes back thousands of years.
The Chinese are a proud nation, and probably have every right to feel that way. They very hard working, well networked globally and are visionaries.
Mahabalraj Singh Peshi
Well let China stop production, and lets see how fast other competing nations take up the job offers/ contracts. Who is going to miss the low quality items that come out from their manufacturing base, anyway.
As for the Tibetan issue, what loyalty are you referring too? You may not be aware, but last week, 3 Tibetan performed self-immolation in China, as a protest to the human rights violations that are occurring in Tibet. They actually burnt themselfs, that's how strongly they oppose the Chinese invasion.
http://www.voanews.com/content/two-tibetans-die-in-self-immolation-protest-in-china/1488717.html
Shane Schuller
Karl Meyer
At present, China owns a massive amount of United States debt and is such a contributor to trade around the world, that it would not be difficult to argue that China is now the #1 superpower. Add to that their nuclear capabilities and their massive military machine and the argument becomes even easier...
Lingy Oh
Ken brown 30+
abdulrahman rahma
Mahabalraj Singh Peshi
China is becoming aggressive with its neighbors, just google the spratly island issues, consider how Tibetians are treated. There are public demonstrations in Vietham and Loas against China and its policies. China supports Pakistan and has blocked many UN resolutions that could prevent war in Central Asia- the Syria issue.
My experience with the Chinese in South East Asia (i.e Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia) is that they are a narrow minded group with strong clannish policies. They appear to have a false notion of the superiority of their race, and assume that they are better workers then the rest. They use language as a barrier to prevent entry of Non-Chinese into their firms. I shall stop here, least I be called racist.
You should be worried about the rise of China!
Lingy Oh
Mahabalraj Singh Peshi
jing du
Lillian Bogonko
jing du
Erik Richardson 500+
2._However, the us-versus-them mentality of "super-powers" will continue to be inflated by politicians and spoon fed to the public by the media machine in an effort to drive production and profit. America learned all too well how valuable the cold war mindset was as a whip of fear.
3._Why, oh why aren't we learning Chinese in our schools? And HIndi? And Arabic?
David Hamilton 50+
Ghassan Mustafa
Barry Palmer 50+
1. "superpower not yet" -- I thought we were talking future tense, as in centuries.
2. "China is simply too large, and not really one single nation. Its a little like europe, with many differences and difficulties inside." -- This has been mentioned a number of times. The same can be said of the USA.
3. "The US is going to have to accommodate China" -- I have heard this on the radio and read it in the paper more times than I can count. If the one and only superpower must accommodate China, a country which is, at this moment, backward, then we are now witnessing the redefinition of the meaning of superpower.
IMO, the term is becoming useless unless you want to talk about who can throw the most bombs around the globe, and that is a childish measure of power. In the future, the measure of power will not even include military power. The most powerful country will be the country that can produce the most good.
Tracy Mbabu
Debra Smith 200+
Jason Kather 10+
sorry... I couldn't help myself. :P
Debra Smith 200+
Jason Kather 10+
(Maybe my sense of humor is just different than yours? Remember the Noah's Ark debate?)
Debra Smith 200+
David Hamilton 50+
We're nowhere near perfect, or civillized, but we have learned to get along well enough, with every group of people on the planet, and it makes us almost impossible to collapse. When I say collapse externally, what I mean is "You all caught up, and we didn't let you realize it", our dollar needs to be worth a bit less in your eyes, because we made some big mistakes.
This will give us the kick in the butt we need, to get back to work in my humble opinion. When that happens though, China will experience some growing pains, as they need to pay more for their own internal labor, to stabillize their internal economy. We'll both be fine, as long as we don't go crazy and go to war, and I don't think that's going to happen.
I did not mean to name call at all by the way, I really enjoyed my trip to China, and I wish nothing but the best for its people. I just think many economies are currently underestimating their ability to have a positive impact on the world, because they still think of America as #1. To you Canada should be #1, to Lillian, Kenya should be #1. To Switzerland, the Swiss should be #1, and a lot of people have the rights to actually claim this for valid reasons nowadays. This is just my opinion though.
China does not own America, we can afford the hit in international inflation to pay them back, whenever we want. Right now though, it would hurt us both a bit, they are getting interest. Also, the international community would freak out if we did that right now, and for good reason, it would be unprecedented.
Debra Smith 200+
That is because they learned from what happened to the currency of the USA. No money in the world is more threatened, devalued and exploited by counterfeiting than yours. The Chinese will not have it. In the rest of the world the de facto currency is American dollars but most of them are photocopied or something and often are still backed by the US mint. Worthless and still with purchasing power. The rest of the world scrambles to make coloured currency with chips in it and your population likes theirs plain (and a drain on your economy.) What is a politician to do with a population who refuses to know?
If you were to try the radical policy you suggest who would complain more than Americans? I hate to remind you that the meltdown was homemade and cooked up at Wall St. Addresses. Your tendency to chistle against the rules, defeat your own governments and hate your neighbours to the point of watching your sick loved ones die so insurance companies can profit -as if they hold American values more firmly than your own people do- is also uniquely yours.
PS The first step to a better world is for Americans to STOP pretending that they are the only ones making a difference in this world. The rest of the world deals with immigrants at a very high level and we deal with every other problem that you think you are the only one dealing with. Please!
David Hamilton 50+
You get to a really interesting place here though, where you agree with all my complaints about the current US system, and then seem to suggest that Americans will find it intolerable to fix these issues, but don't default on your debt... So... What?
On the one hand you seem to be suggesting all of our flaws, on the other hand it almost seems like you're suggesting "Now get back off your butts, and start playing Global Thermal Nuclear War, and Team America World Police again, or China's going to play it better than you"... Oh and at the same time "STOP pretending that you are the only ones making a difference in this world"...
It does get a bit confusing what you actually want : )
Ahmed Al Bayati
Debra Smith 200+
Let's talk facts.
Lillian Bogonko
paul Ashton
Debra Smith 200+
Karl Jackson
Debra Smith 200+
http://youtu.be/OF37qHLH76s
Karl Jackson
When I look at world I see many countries and a few countries in terms of population
are extremely large.
Economically speaking those countries with the highest populations China #1 means that China has approx. 1 1/5 billion people (a large portion of them create "productivity").
So the reason China will become a #1 power "one day" is basically because of their "people power".
People = Productivity. That means, economics and guess what? Economics determines politics and power. So in my view why worry. Although everything is relative, life on our wonderful earth takes it's natural course.
Everyone have a Great day! Karl at TalkFusionAutoWebinar.com Signing off.
Akulan Haeres
Or I can be wrong. Research.
Lillian Bogonko
Akulan Haeres
Make the dots, maybe you'll get it.
Karl Jackson
I believe the average personal wage in China is approx. $130 a month!
So what are we waiting for?
Ankit Mistry
+ you know how hard its to run a business in law less country (communist). Ask Google.
Max Gutapfel
Ming Tang
Lillian Bogonko
Barry Palmer 50+
Superpower. I have read again and again that there is only one superpower, the USA. So basically, that is the definition of superpower.
China does not and cannot become the USA. China does not want to become the USA or anything like the USA.
China will redefine superpower.
And the sooner the better.
Debra Smith got it right with the first post.
David Hamilton 50+
If you want major econonic superpower investment though... Look to Canada, look to Norway, look to Switzerland, look to places that have a high standard of living and treat their people well. This means avoiding looking at both the US, and China... imho.
"China will redefine superpower.
And the sooner the better."
What do you mean by that? They will redefine superpower as a place with no free speech? They will redefine superpower with government sponsored corporations? They will redefine superpower as "the country which hasn't invented anything you use"?
Barry Palmer 50+
Many people of the USA proclaim that we are the only superpower with pride.
That makes me cringe. As I mentioned in another discussion, I sometimes think we would be better off putting all of our aircraft carriers up for auction. Let someone else police the world.
David Hamilton 50+
As Jon Stewart says "Congratulations on being the worlds fastest growing, and soon to be largest economy China... It's like being a giant Santa Claus, who everyone's trying to kill"
Debra Smith 200+
David Hamilton 50+
Lillian Bogonko
David Hamilton 50+
If we get attacked, by land, 100 million people will volunteer for our military, and we'll scorch the earth. We are team America World Police. We are the violent children of a continent that simply could not get along with itself. The good thing is however, we don't mean to take any territory. We don't mean to own China or Russia, or force our culture on them, or anyone else.
What is often seen as western propaghanda is really... Human beings all just like sexy people, and music, and TV, and computers. It's a lot less sinister than it sounds.
We are also still AN economic superpower... We still have the highest GDP, and honestly, in my opinion, the best university system in the world, right here in California. We don't have the highest GDP per capita. We don't do well on math or science tests. We don't have a high income to debt ratio. We don't have a good high school education system. We don't have a good health care system. We don't have a good retirement insurance system...
So, we're up there, with all the others... but we're not number 1 anymore. We lost our #1 superpower status, when we took #1 in incarcerated citizens per capita. We lost it over 30 years of high school graduate stagnation. We lost it when we fell to 100 and somethingth in infant mortallity.
We stopped investing in ourselves. We stopped doing our own labor, and we started to expect that others would do it for us... That's my take anyway.
David Hamilton 50+
People were so happy with the new opportunities, that they stopped joining labor unions and fighting for workers rights. The hippies said "we won", and went home. All that it takes for evil to triumph, is that good men, do... Nothing.
omar kamran
Obey No1kinobe 50+
Assuming Military and economic power are key factors is being a super power:
China has the 2nd largest economy but only half the USA, but catching up fast.
China has the second largest military spend but only 20% what the US spends and a much lessor ability to project conventional power, offshore bases etc.
China is on the way to being a superpower. It is already a great power.
The US is going to have to accommodate China and China needs to follow reasonable international norms or there will be trouble.
Sijiang Wang
David Hamilton 50+
1. Why America thinks GDP is important.
2. Why GDP used to be incredibly important.
3. Why GDP is no longer a remotely decent measure of the progress of the economy.
1. America thinks GDP is important because it is the total value of goods exchanged in the economy, which theoretically, is your starting point for mobillizing a war effort.
2. During the Cold War, and times not so long ago, when single countries were still threatening the world with raining fire from below, America needed to be absolutely certain, that no one could mobillize a larger war effort, than they were capable of mustering. GDP, is the measure of how much potential war strength a nation has. Assuming all things are equal culturally, if China can muster up 25% of GDP for a war with us, than we can muster up 25% to fight them. As long as we have a larger GDP, and a stable culture, no one can invade us.
3. GDP is no longer valuable for obvious reasons. There are many distinct social, and cultural differences between The United States and the Chinese... but we aren't going to rain fire down on one another. China isn't investing anywhere near enough in its military to attack. So, the fear of China having a greater GDP than the US, is absolute nonsense, unless you think the second they pass us, they will dedicate the exact same amount of money to war as we did. There is no evidence of that. I don't think China wants to take over the world.
If China is not going to try to physically take over the world, and they have now entered the game America plays, "investment"... The stat that matters, is median household income, or GDP per capita, or wealth distribution. What percentage of the money made in the country investing, goes back to labor? Plenty of countries now offer better opportunities than the US, but China is not there yet.
You know who should invest in Kenya? Kenyans :)
Robert Winner 50+
The gross domestic product (GDP) is one the primary indicators used to gauge the health of a country's economy. It represents the total dollar value of all goods and services produced over a specific time period - you can think of it as the size of the economy. Usually, GDP is expressed as a comparison to the previous quarter or year. For example, if the year-to-year GDP is up 3%, this is thought to mean that the economy has grown by 3% over the last year.
The second important indicator in economics is the balance of trade as defined here:
The balance of trade (or net exports, sometimes symbolized as NX) is the difference between the monetary value of exports and imports of output in an economy over a certain period. It is the relationship between a nation's imports and exports. A positive balance is known as a trade surplus if it consists of exporting more than is imported; a negative balance is referred to as a trade deficit or, informally, a trade gap. The balance of trade is sometimes divided into a goods and a services balance.
With the workforce available and the accomadations being made to intice investors and companies to manufacture in China, it could be reasonable to see the GDP growing and the balance of trade in the surplus both indicating China's growing stature in the world market.
All the best. Bob.
David Hamilton 50+
Who the biggest economy is not relevant especially when ignoring populace. China is numer 11 or so and rising we're number 5 and falling... but, no one invests in foreign countries to lose money. This means that most investors, intend to export wealth from your country... hence, the best investors are locals. Invest as locally as you can, and care about your neighbors, in my humble opinion.
pat gilbert 50+
GDP is important to say otherwise is stupid. To somehow equate that to war is even more stupid.
GDP has been, is, and always will be important.
Since you are throwing out GDP as a metric shall we throw out NORTH, UP AND DOWN, AND SURVIVAL as well?
The trade deficit is really not important and self correcting. I will not say much except if you think otherwise read up on it...
So what is important in this conversation?
The same things that are always important- production (GDP), morale, prediction, knowledge, ethics, the individual, liberty, rule of law, private property, a culture that embraces this, and some other things that I forgot.
David Hamilton 50+
I think you want GDP and profit margin, because you equate them to standard of living and education. America, has proven over the last 50 years, that they don't necessarily equate to one another.
Lillian Bogonko
All am saying , the days of protectionism are over. Even China knows that. Countries have no choice but to open up their markets. Who has bought America`s bonds? You think Americans own their economy....talk to the Chinese they`ll tell you a different story. That is why trade with China is so precious to America even though they sell cheap goods.
David Hamilton 50+
Both groups are in your land, to export money. No one goes overseas to import money. Every time a Kenyan shops at McDonalds, an American gets richer... When a company comes to your land to invest, their goal is not to help you...
I understand that all of Europe, and most of America, and Canada, and Australia, and China, are all trying convince you that globallization is the way to go... The reason they are doing that, is because that gives them a percentage of your productivity... You don't need us... In my humble opinion.
I also believe the same is true of China and the US. We get along with China, they're not taking territory... If we had to though, the world would be shocked how quickly we'd go back to doing manual labor ourselves, and doing it really well. We don't need anyone, we have everyone, there is a million Chinese people living here : )
Also, we all live in a world of faux currency which is very easy to manipulate. I will be laughed at for saying this... but I think this relates heavily to your other conversation... Globallization, is the last bastion of racism. "You can't build these businesses on your own, let us in to take a percentage, and "teach" you"...
I think Kenyan businesses are perfectly capable of selling their own products on the world market, I don't think you need China or America. I'm not talking protectionism, buy things China makes well, buy things America makes well... Invest, in yourself. Don't invite us in as managers, and directors, invite us in as tourists, and consumers... just my humble opinion.
Lars Mews
Also, China is more than highly dependent on ideas from the outside of china. When you look at the world, the western culture is dominant, funnily most dominant in countries who yell at the americans all day. If you ever talked to chinese people you might have noticed that the chinese way of thinking, talking and imagining is a lot diffrent from this western style. That draws China back, because it is unable to invent or produce products that dominate markets. The only thing they are able to is copy sucessfull ideas, and most of the time they are not good in that, as they simply cannot follow the inventors way to think, so they make a lot of mistake.
If China would become more western, they gonna have the problems of the western culture too. It is a question of China can be run the western way-maybe China is just properly working chinese?
China also has another problem, which is the growing wealth. At the moment, the people get used to higher life standards, and you can not keep this to a minority alone. The people gonna want better salary, and this makes China lose his ace of being the cheap producer. If loans raise, nobody gonna ask for chinese workpower, as for same prices other nations will do it on their own again, with better quality.
So Chinas got to face that they forgot national politics, and just starred at the money/economy. They went the wrong way, they started cheap and increase the price. I doubt china is able to move fast enough to run away from such problems, what is what smaller nations are able to. I needs too much time to keep that many people in line.
Archer Andrews
Lillian Bogonko
They have shown they can adapt to it by joining WTO and other institutions but above all by embracing capitalism ...to some degree. I think what we`re witnessing is a new type of governance structure in the international system that is multi-polar, where many powerful states are balancing each other out.
David Hamilton 50+