Max Gutapfel

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The next Industrial Revolution: How do we prepare for it?

The last "revolution" which was the ability to recreate and share data from our homes through the internet and the use of computers is still not solved yet.

We react like noone saw it coming that at one point it would be possible to recreate for example music and videos in 2 mousclicks. A huge debate is going on about how to distribute things which are basically free to recreate (even tho everyone could potentially have it)... and there are such simple solutions to it yet we are stuck in endless debates.

I see the next revolution coming which carries the last revolution into the "physical" world. Im talking about 3D printing which is becoming cheaper and cheaper. I see it coming that one day everyone will manufacture the things he wants at home from raw materials.
And i see the outcry coming which is going to inhibit this development and will basically disrupt our new gained ability.

So my question is: Shouldnt we prepare for it now?! So we dont end up in emotional debates where one party fears to loose it all whilst the other one fights for the right to make use of technology that changes the way our economy works.

I think we should bring well thought out laws into place now and propose business models which handle this exact scenario in which everyone can make use of a blueprint and he/she only needs the raw materials.

How can we inhibit the mess of debates and this fight for money as its going on today?

-because it will come within the next 20 years (i could even imagine 10 years)

  • Jul 25 2012: What industrial revolution the world needs: Cheap and accessible energy

    The reality: Robotics
    I participate on web comferences about this topic.
    Robots with 11 degrees of freedom capable of making even the most dificult human tasks.
    Cogniscitive 3-D vision capable of calculating movements instantly and adaptable to variable situations.
    Algorithms to sense the weight of an object and compensate their positioning to achieve 50um tolerance, which is imposible for a human.
    Deficiencies: They have to be stationary units. Batteries does not have enough energy density.
    Critical thinking. They do not have the capacity to create solutions for unexpected situations.
    We are prepared for that? I don't know.
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    Jul 21 2012: I'm afraid, that if we could prepare for any kind of revolution - it won't be revolution anymore; unpredictability in process and consequences just as dynamic impact - these are integral parts of any kind of "revolution", if we think about industrial or information revolution - we think about it with retrospective distortion of perception, it seems to us - that these had logical reasons and predictable consequences and it makes us believe that we can predict similar event in future (but it is just projection of our past, sort of delusion).
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    Jul 21 2012: Crowd-sourcing and social networking will evolve into collectives with agency, legal-political power, and money. Astronomical amounts of money. At that point the proto-collective form of corporations will look like Flintstone cars. (If you haven't read John C. Wright's Golden Age Trilogy, you should, it is the greatest vision since Asimov's Foundation).

    These will not necessarily be evil, because human free agency will still allow us to move among collectives, but they will be super-logical and super-brilliant in ways we can only glimpse. Trying to write laws that they can't undo, re-do, circumvent is a fool's hope. What we CAN do, is make sure that we put educational systems in place that make people capable of holding to their sense of value so that the collectives built from their needs/wants will reflect and amplify what is best in human nature rather than only what is worst.
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    Jul 21 2012: The law is an ass.

    Models, intellectual property, licensing laws - these are all ways for the sneetches to keep the stars upon thars

    share it, steal it, give it away..
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    R H

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    Jul 20 2012: I guess I'm wondering how we can predict, with enough accuracy, what 'well thought-out laws' and 'business models' we can put "into place now" for revolutionary technologies we have yet to experience on a significant scale to warrant such laws and models. Gov't is clumsy enough now with known issues let alone predictive ones, and business won't change anything unless it's profitable to do so. Although, like you, I would love for our society to be enlightened enough to be capable of such 'revolutionary' management, I don't see the real incentives in place to provide the energy for such preparedness and change. Maybe we can prepare ourselves in some way. I think I'll buy commodities.
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    Jul 20 2012: Alvin Toffler talked about 3 waves, agrarian, industrial, computer. Extrapolating forward bioengineering/nano-engineering?

    You can't pass laws about stuff that hasn't happened yet?

    This fight for money you talk about is exactly what will sort it all out until the government, if it still exists, here get their clumsy hands on it.
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      Jul 20 2012: Thank you for you comment :o)

      Bio engineering and Nano engineering will be another revolution but not the one im talking about.

      There was first the "Computer revolution" but then there was a network revolution which was the moment every single person got its hands on it. And i think this will happen again with 3D printing it might not have an as strong impact when its first put to use however when people get their hands on it it will have an impact and we will feel it ;o).

      And why wouldnt i be able to pass a law thats not needed now? What prevents us from doing so?
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        Jul 20 2012: SLR has been around for quite a while now yup it changed some stuff but I would not say it was a revolution in the same category as computers I would say CNC has been revolutionary as well and it does the heavy lifting that 3d printers never will but it was possible because of computers.

        As far as passing laws before they are needed, with ALL due respect that is kind of crazy. In fact one of the fundamental violations of logic that takes place in D.C. is exactly what you describe. In large part it comes from an arrogant top down mentality that is great for building power and terrible for you and me.