- Vadim Berman
- Melboune
- Australia
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The future of crime
OK, maybe it's a bit twisted of me, but I am curious. Are the career criminals of the future all going to be B2cr ("business to criminal", e.g. robbing a warehouse, prostitution, drug trade) professionals and computer hackers?
Even today, I can't see how it's possible to make a living breaking in and stealing electronics, or picking pockets for a few hundreds or a smartphone that will go out of fashion tomorrow and probably contains a tracking device. It makes little to no sense to obtain plastic means of payment, because it makes getting caught easier.
I do realise that the disparity among the different countries is huge (in monetary terms). But even the bulk of what used to be called "third world" and is now known as "emerging markets", will have the same magnitude of ratio of average earnings to valuables being carried, in a matter of 20 - 30 years.
All replies are welcome, but reactions from law enforcement professionals are much appreciated.
Suzanne Seale
Edward Bolton
Mitch SMith 50+
It all has to do with the nature of space and metaspace - this includes crime.
About crime - all I can say is that the only crime in any game is to be alive.
From there, you must play to be alive.
Stop playing - grow-up and be alive anyway.
The traction map? Simple:
THe interface between space and metaspace is defined by:
1. perception. (lags behind in time) Humans gain enlarged perception through communication - modulated by trust.
2. Agency. (Agency preceeds time)
everything between perception and agency is life. And it exists in metaspace.
All Life violates time.
To be human is to trust.
Derek Young 30+
Mitch SMith 50+
Well . it's all pretty easy - you just have to dare to fail.
You stick your head up. and if it doesn't get shot-off, you do it better the next time.
You get a lot of near-misses and lose your ear .. but so long as you take time to heal . you can keep your head up long enough to smell the roses and look at the scenery.
It's the strangest thing . you see so much darkness. but that allows you to see so much light.
Watching the TED talks and exposing my ignorance in these discussions has allowed me to join some important dots.. Then you end up with one of those "does the pope sh*t in the woods?" observations of the obvious.
It is obvious to me now that Humanity has been taken for a dirty little trip into the woods. And I'd like to see us hack our way out.
It's been going on for a while - all this involution that got started with farming -> the farming of people. It's all based on the notion that comptetition between people is the one and only rule of success. But it's not - trust is the one and only characteristic that gives humans their edge. HUman competition serves only the psychopath - and the psychopath has been running this fake selection routine to produce more psychopaths since the advent of agriculture. WE grow up in this atmosphere and assume that it has always been that way and there is no other way to be - learning the truth of it is traumatic because it's a process of un-learning the lie. And it's hard - because the lie has been going for the whole of recorded history.
All vested interests re-lie on the lie - so .. If I started a movement, all my followers would be rounded up and shot.
So what do you do?
Well, you sow seeds and support those things that erode the lie. Create groundswell - so that when it all comes together, it comes together like a crystal - all happening at once, and unstoppable when it does. The good thing about that is everyone comes to the same conclusion as if they just thought it up themselves - they take ownership - of themselvs
Derek Young 30+
And shot! HAHA! I guess this supposed 2012 "end of the world" crap, is just what you would like, but you aren't the first I've heard that one from...I'm not sure if that is categorized as pesimistic or optimistic. HAHA!
OMG, I can't believe that I, not the first person on earth, didn't think of that idea first! haha! Very true observation. Let's all go have a drink now. haha!
Mitch SMith 50+
I've been accused of being teh "illuminati" more than once ;)
I think the "dare to fail" thing was one of those Dale Carnegie wisdoms .. maybe he got it from teh Masons. Like all that stuff, it can be taken the wrong way. - You have to pick-out the self-destructive bits.
End of the world? Well, as we know it anyway. The pillars of civillisation are all pretty much screwed at this point. SO what falls down? And did we really need it anyway? THere is certainly going to be a lot of disruption, but people are pretty effective in a crisis .. I don't imagine it will be the worst case, but it kinda can't be the best case either. I just hope htat not too many people get wrecked by it. Being centered on your true self will be an advantage .. getting out of competition and into trust will also be essential. All I can say is that anyone with blood on their hands will have marked themselves for extinction.
Vadim Berman
This is not unlike transportation. It used to be simple: feed the horse, remove what it left behind in the stables. Today one has to know about injectors, unleaded gasoline, tyre pressure, ABS, road tolls with smart cards.
And as much as we love making things look dramatic and "desperate", the so-called hardship of modern people is no match for what people used to undergo a couple of hundred years ago. In the current economic "depression" the bulk of population is able to afford phones with cameras and iPads. Oh no, I won't get massages for my feet and won't be able to watch TV in 5D! Two hundred years ago children were being hanged or sent to far away colonies for stealing bread. A bit of a difference, isn't it?
Mitch SMith 50+
You are talking about different types of crime. Crimes of property have always been about 2 things - the oppression of the dissposessed and the game itself. The oppression og the disposessed is committed by teh state - and is perfectly legal., In fact the laws are designed to enact the oppression.
To avoid being the disposessed, you play the game.
I mentioned the pre-paid phone scam - $millions worth of handsets were going out of the Oz netwporks into China every year - and a lot of contract (new) handsets were going as well. THis was because the handsets were only identified by SIM ID. The backpackers were not breaking any law, the (Fagans)purchasers were not breaking any law - bending terms of contract a little - The exporters were bending the law on goods description, and the re-chip operations in China were breaking no Chinese law. Were any of them criminals? Certainly in terms of fair-play, but not as far as the law was concerned.
I put in place a supply/demand process for that telco on behalf of the company because the handset procurement was not matching the market demand - it was not matching market demand because the purchase agents were awarding supply tenders based on things like 9-year-old sex toys and a years supply of high grade cocain. Laws were very definitely being broken there, but it was not the law that stopped it - it was the company.
All of this happens because of the game - because of law itself. Law creates the game. And western law deliberately creates the game because it is adversarial - it is based on competition. THerefore, the powerful are those who learn the rules and play the game well - we reward game-players. Unfortunately, the best game players are psychopaths.
Comment deleted
Vadim Berman
I wouldn't call the postpaid phone thingy a crime - more like a breach of contract, which is a bit different. Still, you may observe that it's all going towards the grey zone and compexity.
Now regarding life being better... Let's put it this way: it is not significantly worse and easier in many respects. Forget the gadgets, the important basics are:
* food
* shelter
* health
* transportation
* finally, education
Hunger still exists, but nowhere close to the past. Shelter, well, it's a mixed bag, but in general, more people can afford decent or at least sufficient place to house themselves (and yes, millions still live in poverty, but it's all in comparison). Health, it's much more difficult to die from flu these days and the pension funds are going bankrupt because the life expectancy is on steady rise (not only in the "golden billion" countries). Transportation, well, no question here, right? Education - being able to read and write no longer makes you exceptional.
Even communicating is so much easier when one doesn't have to lift one's bum and can talk to the other end of the planet.
Again, I'm not saying that the issues do not exist or are not serious, I'm just saying that things are not worse than a few hundred years ago.
Of course, one thing which got seriously worse is ecology. And another one which makes lives of many people more difficult: they don't have to sweat in the field and therefore must confront their own mind. Many find it too challenging.
Mitch SMith 50+
It has nothing to do with how long you live - it has to do with how alive you were in the process.
I think I already commented on the nature of risk.
Less pain is not equal to more life. It is equal to the life we refused to live.
So yes, OK - what we don't see is how we are the stepping stone for the next creature.
Humanity has been throwing prototypes of this bastard child for millenia.
WHat is the next creature? Well . farming for a start, civillisation(of various kinds) money, science .. these are creatures.
THe only true living thing we succeeded to throw, apart from money, (as at now) is the internet. And even that is being sown with the seeds of its own death.
Here - do this exercise - design a currency for Greece to allow the Greeks to escape the tyrany of the Euro. When you do this exercise, you will get a great big lightbulb over your head about what money is. If you are a decent guy, you will stop there - if you are a psychopath, you will put it into practice.
Do this other exercise - hey dude - you are made up of cells. Every single one of them can survive without you (given the right neutrient environment. ANd most of those cells aren't even human (google that - it's surprising). But the point is that all those cells trust you - you are their major project, and every steop you take, and every breath you take is a victory for them. Now - elevate your 20 trillion admirers to the level of your own ego - then .. tell me how you feel about that. Then tell me about the honour.
Mitch SMith 50+
100 years ago, the adversarial law system was just the same as it is today - and the only reason we have 5-D TV is to keep us all with our faces glued to little squares so we don't look away and see that our lives are being sucked dry by the game. If we look away from teh seductive sh*t that slimes out of out 5-D TVs, we might notice that it's all to deliver power and wealth to the winners of teh games. If we look away, then we see that the whole thing is a ponzi-scheme that is all about to collapse in a heap.
8 years ago - I left the game - the players didn't like having an honest man in the game - so they got rid of me.
Life outside the game is a whole lot better. THese days, I avoid players like a case of syphilus. All the colour has returned to my life. I recommend it.
Mitch SMith 50+
On the manner of negotiating with princes by François de Callières,
Justine by the Marquis De Sade
Emma by the Marquis De Sade
If you survive these, have a look at:
Our Lady of the Flowers by Jean genet.
If you survive that have a look at:
I'm Right/You're Wrong by Edward De Bono and
Chaos by James Gleik.
And if you survive those, have a look at:
Neural Computing Theory and Practice by Philip D Wasserman. THen visit Marvin Minski's website.
THen go out into the sea of metaspace and watch.
THe new crime happens in the metaspace of our proxies of life - mind farming. Get prepared.
Oh and .. damnit - read "The Magic of FIndhorn" - after reading all the above (and doing the math) you will need to see a way out. I met Peter Caddy - and I have seen the work he and Eileen set lose .. but you have to know what dirt you are walking on before you can actually walk. And how the hell would you know that except through walking?
edited to say - these are not triffling challenges - almost any one of these books has the potential to utterly destroy you. GO at it softly.
Mitch SMith 50+
Most die before they even took a single step.
On the face of all this darkness .. everyone startled like deer to be strapped on a hood for someone's genital statement - and more deer got killed by SUV's than guns.
And more wars got decided by what pathogens you imported than the weapons you used.
Napoleon was proud of his "Scum of the Earth" as he marched around Europe and became the defining little man in his century. And how many steps did he take? 2. ANd how many steps defined his "scum"? 1.
Able was I ere I saw elba .. and he was honoured by his own palindrome and inspired more music than any other actor in recorded history.
Take step - then take step, then take step. Napoleon was a child.
Each step you take is a lifetime - I have taken 5 or 7 .. .. it's no benefit . exept how many lifetimes you live before you die. ANd there are some who have taken lifetimes in every step their body did - we call them "the Buddha".
THe closer we get to a lifetime in every step and every breath we undertake .. that is what it is all about - now .. step out human!
/end-rant
russell slocum
Vadim Berman
Mitch SMith 50+
Another way was to case-out the delivery schedules and hijack the trucks with new phones - around 4 mill per shipment. REsult? Armed escorts and randomised schedules - increased costs and a higher premium on corrupting a truck driver.
The only one I directly fixed was the practice of cable guys selling de-installed set top boxes out of the back of their vans. I put a process in to track de-installs, a lot of cable guys went to jail .. and within 2 weeks, the market was being satisfied at gunpoint - taking new STB's directly from the depots.
Each fix makes the problem worse.
I've seen this everywhere - systems that used to crash and result in me getting called at 3am to log in and fix a file, then putting atomatic recovery in place and still being called at 3am to fix the failures in the fixes and each layer of fixes requiring more and more time spent fixing at 3am.
I called the process "Artificial Stupidity".
And it all has to do with trying to control risk.
Risk cannot be controled - it can only be delayed into a great heap that eventually collapses.
SO Vadim - look to the industries that are preparing to reap the benefits of collapsing risk. It will be all about charging people for a haven while the risk you delay gets dropped on someone else.
Mitch SMith 50+
You give backpackers $5 per unit and just set them loose.
THey pay the subsidised prepaid fee at the legit phone-merchant, and you reimburse plus $5.
The handset is actually worth at least 4 times as much - with the real profits coming from call rates.
SO there's a markup that can be had in other jurisdictions with the non-legit phone merchants reaping the difference in subsidies paid by legit merchants.
ANd the backpackers are happy to get $5 for a few minutes of their time - they can subsidise themselves on only an hours work/day..
And dissabling gps is a doddle.
Ken brown 30+
What about kim dotcom? he's one very smart man and julian lasange who by the way might consider running for the Australian senate in absentia,i heard it on the talk back here in nz though it probably is radio gossip.
Vadim Berman
Suzanne Seale
I found that many inmates have more "theta" waves than "delta" "alpha" or "beta" waves. We all have these waves. When we feel bored we have theta waves. Those people who have more theta waves, often do dangerous things to stimulate their brains to feel normal. This is why race car drivers can function well at high speeds, because they are at their peak performance while under stress. Criminals who would use violence are a different group from those who would pickpocket and those who would swindle. Though a well-thought out plan to get money might appeal to some criminals, to others, planning wouldn't use their natural skills which call for action.
Vadim Berman
This means that whatever the economic benefit is, the "physical" crime will still exist just because of "adrenalin junkies" and "hobbyists".
I wouldn't automatically file all the swindlers and the pickpockets into the low theta waves group though (the ones I had to deal with, liked the saying "the grass is greener on the other side of the precipice").
Derek Young 30+
Christophe Cop 500+
That would make me ask:
What would still considered to be criminal?
If I assume the definition to be: "any non-positive sum game", then I would assume there will always be free-riders.
The ways to free-riding are almost limitless... as is abuse.
I suspect that such (negative sum game) behavior is bigger if means of survival are lower.
My hypothesis is that crime will decrease (as we get more pro-social)
Vadim Berman
There are obviously things falling into the grey zone or potentially harmful for the economic order (insider trading, barratry, some say blackmail, IP piracy), but probably the easiest definition of an economic crime is a transaction from another party to oneself, not defined by law, and done despite being detrimental to the donor or a 3rd party. Yeah, "non-positive sum game".
And yes, I also believe that the crime will in general decrease.
Suzanne Seale
Derek Young 30+
Edward Bolton
Mitch SMith 50+
There is no crime without law :)
So I suppose that any new crime will be related to any new law.
And Vadim's answer is to just watch the legislation - every new law passed will indicate to the "criminal" which crimes to choose from.
.. makes you wonder why laws are passed these days .. it's a bit of a lolly bag and represents one of teh only reliable abundances we have.
Eating lawyers sounds cool .. damn! canibalism is already illegal .. but if we can get them legislated as non-human .. then pass a law that it's illegal to eat lawyers .. anyone up for a steak?
Derek Young 30+
Suzanne Seale
Vadim Berman
Well, it's a mix of idle curiosity and my personal experience in which I and some other people were caught in a very clever scheme which the law is unable to handle properly, for a variety of reasons. This got me thinking: maybe this is the future of crime? Maybe the guy is not only a crook but is actually a visionary crook :-) .
Suzanne Seale
Recently I have seen crimes in heatlthcare. Kickbacks for bringing in patients, kickbacks for showing up for a test or operation, hospitals firing good doctors and getting cheaper staff who don't benefit the patient but benefit the bottom line. Crimes against the elderly will increase with lack of jobs and an increase helpless older people.
I'm sure it's hard to get back into the workforce after being in jail, so crime would see attractive. Problem is, to get a job you have to have skills and a proven track record. You don't want to get caught again.
Vadim Berman
Sina Elli 10+
In my opinion the definition of crime will include more subtle acts in society and for example an act of discouraging people, killing their motivation, creating bad feelings, misleading, will be considered crime.
ok now for the futuristic crime you had in mind, I guess it will be mind control and making people do things they are not consciously aware of. I am not suggesting that this will be done by hypnotizing, what I have in mind is high tech devices that can be used to inject thoughts in minds of others.
Vadim Berman
Eric Bassaga
Vadim Berman
The crime is looking for the grey zones and modernises itself: better payout, less risk. Just like harvesters replaced ploughs and earth-moving machines are used where people were using shovels, crime uses technological advances, too.
Orlando Hawkins 20+
I think you missing something very important here which is the reasons or factors that contribute to people being career criminals.....From what I read in your post, you do not see much of a future for them..
your assertions makes sense but I do not think they touch up on the situation entirely.
First things first: you need to understand the reasons as to why they are doing what they are doing. Is it an adrenaline rush? does their past play a major influence? How is their socioeconomic situation? Should the focus be on rehabilitation or retribution (Justice)?
The first two may be very hard to dictate being that their would have to be a lot of analysis and studies that take place but the one regarding their social and economic life does not require such hard work. All is needed is common sense and observation and this will be the basis of the point I am trying to make.
As long as we live in political economies that only serves to keep people balkanized and desperate, crime will continue to exist on a very large scale (although I think it is safe to say that violence has decreased overall).
I am in agreement with you that, career criminals are going to have to up the ante eventually (if they have not already) but I do not think that this will stop them from doing what they are doing. I just think that if they are smart enough, they'll find other ways of obtaining what they want....
Vadim Berman
On a higher level, there are fictive offshore companies, outsourced call centres, spam-sending botnets, and other modern technological and legal devices which may help the offender avoid being prosecuted. This kind of offenders may avoid the punishment for very long time, if not indefinitely. It is not rocket science either.
My point was that if the traditional crime, like pickpocketing and stealing appliances, merely keeps the operators alive with high danger of being prosecuted, then modern crime is a more natural choice, isn't it? Criminal world is a subculture with own rules and "survival of the fittest" must be one of them.
On a personal level, did you more often hear about someone getting mugged, or receive spam emails about millions waiting for you somewhere?
Sam Tukuafu
I reckon this is a complex discussion, so much avenues to blame (The demand for who or what they are stealing for, lifestyle/low socio-economic areas) or it could purely be the adrenaline of getting away with something or the joy of gettting something for free. A serial killer grows an addiction so it highly likely for career criminals to do so too.
The system may need speculation? Once you have an offense on your criminal record and you apply at the local McDonalds, your very unlikely to pass a criminal check to get a job that nobody really wants. Placing offenders with no other choice to exist in a further career of crime.
There might be a need for change in the layout of the criminal record documents. Maybe next to the offences, you'd have a list of courses or payments the offender attended and paid to rehabilitate them from such offenses so employers can read that something was done about it.
If their offense was to do with money, the employer can direct the applicant to a job title away from money.
At the moment it points out all the negatives giving no chance for anyone to move forward from their history.
Sorry if this is irrelevant.
Vadim Berman
Thanks for that. I'm basically curious to see where it's going.
Adrenaline is an interesting aspect. Indeed, it makes sense that many are too ambitious for minimum wage jobs, and if they can't find another legal opportunity, they try themselves elsewhere.
Vadim Berman
Hundreds of years ago, burglars needed to be skilled with a lockpick. Then, they had to adapt to electronic locks, electronic alarm systems and even webcam security. Pickpockets now can end up with a few bucks and a bunch of plastic cards they can't use - it makes more sense to launch a phishing operation or generate random credit card numbers. Someone busts an ATM and they are on a national TV.
Today the videocameras are everywhere and there are talks about launching surveillance drones to patrol problematic neighbourhoods. When or if that happens, mugging will become more difficult, too.
Yes, these guys are hardly visionaries at the technological forefront, but they will have to catch up eventually.
Derek Young 30+
I was consciously aware that you were refering to "career criminals". Such is life, so prepare to either not get robbed or to robb, I guess. I much prefer a society without the use of theft, but the thought of yin and yang comes into mind after that. =)
Ken brown 30+
Drones? that will bring on the hoodies like in england,the only secure identification i know of is facial thermals as every human on the planet has a unique pattern, even identical twin.
Android bots,i think is the current big news out there.
Vadim Berman
Derek Young 30+
Ken brown 30+
That's how i see the future.
Derek Young 30+
Crime need not be more violent, but crime should become more educated.
Vadim Berman
Derek Young 30+
Vadim Berman
Yeah, I suppose the petty criminals don't make a killing (pun not intended) but I wonder how it compares with minimum wage. If it's way below, what's the point?
Why do you think the crime is to become more violent? We're talking about economic crime, right? Not hate crime.
P G